CANADA – 2025/09/28: In this photo illustration, the AST SpaceMobile (Space Mobile) logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
AST SpaceMobile stock (NASDAQ:ASTS) – a company developing a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to provide broadband directly to smartphones – experienced a 14% increase in stock value on Friday and has risen by over 21% over the last week. Several factors are contributing to these recent gains.
The main driving factor was the announcement that AST SpaceMobile had been selected as a prime contractor for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program. Although the contract is classified as “indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity” (IDIQ), it enables ASTS to bid on future task orders within a program that holds a substantial budget ceiling of $151 billion. This reinforces the “dual-use” capability of AST’s technology, which extends beyond merely supplying internet to consumer smartphones; the satellites can now also serve military purposes such as sensing, secure communications, and missile defense.
In addition, AST SpaceMobile’s technology has now officially been incorporated into the larger “Golden Dome” strategy, a multi-layered defense initiative aimed at safeguarding against air, missile, space, and cyber threats. The stock was already gaining traction from the successful launch of the BlueBird 6 satellite on December 23, 2025. BlueBird 6 boasts the largest commercial communications array ever launched in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and offers a data capacity ten times greater than previous models. With this in mind, investors are becoming increasingly confident that ASTS can achieve its target of launching 45 to 60 additional satellites by the end of 2026.
Is The Sky High Valuation Justified By Growth?
With a market capitalization of approximately $40 billion, ASTS is trading at around 700 times the consensus revenue projections of $60 million for 2025 and 178 times the estimated revenue for 2026. This represents a high valuation given that the company is in the early stages of its operations. Nevertheless, the company has exhibited rapid growth, albeit from a small foundation, with revenues increasing by 249% over the past year, reaching $4.9 million. Projections indicate that revenue will climb to $235 million by the following year. See ASTS Revenue Comparison. However, it is important to note that losses remain significant, with operating losses totaling $260 million over the last 12 months. ASTS has performed considerably worse than the S&P 500 index throughout various economic downturns.
This optimism is founded on AST’s unique position in the satellite broadband sector. Unlike SpaceX’s Starlink, which sells hardware and subscriptions directly to consumers, AST’s satellites function as space-based cell towers, integrating seamlessly into the existing networks of wireless carriers. Collaborations with operators like AT&T, Vodafone, Rakuten, and Verizon enable users to connect using standard smartphones and SIM cards, thus expanding coverage to remote and underserved areas. This carrier-centric approach has the potential to generate recurring, high-margin revenue over time, especially as AST aims for regular launches. Additionally, the increasing adoption in the defense sector offers a valuable upside opportunity, paving the way for higher-value government contracts in the long run.
Nevertheless, significant risks persist. Operating losses amounted to $260 million in the past twelve months, and historically the stock has suffered notably during market stress. In the 2022 selloff driven by inflation, ASTS plummeted 68.5%, in comparison to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500. Read ASTS Dip Buyer Analyses to learn how the stock has rebounded from sharp declines in the past. The balance sheet does provide some stability, showcasing $924 million in cash, low leverage, and cash representing nearly half of total assets. This financial runway supports operational execution, but the valuation offers limited flexibility for delays as the company transitions from satellite deployment to generating substantial commercial revenue.