A recent analytical report says Gulf states are well positioned to play a larger role in shaping the regional security architecture in the aftermath of the war against Iran by adopting a multi-level security approach that combines greater self-reliance with broader international partnerships.
The report, prepared by Ambassador Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, President of the NATO Defense College Foundation and former Deputy Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), was published by the Gulf Research Center in Jeddah. It says partnership with NATO represents an important avenue for developing Gulf defense capabilities, offering opportunities to benefit from the alliance’s accumulated military and operational expertise while enhancing strategic dialogue and exchanges in the fields of security and defense.
Multi-Level Approach
Minuto-Rizzo argues that the next phase will require Gulf states to adopt a multi-level security strategy based on diversifying partnerships and strengthening self-reliance, while maintaining strategic ties with the United States and expanding engagement with Europe and NATO.
He says Gulf countries handled the war against Iran with considerable political prudence, seeking to avoid being drawn into military confrontation despite coming under attack and sustaining direct damage. He notes that Gulf states have in recent years continued a policy of diplomatic opening toward Tehran.
The President of the NATO Defense College Foundation points to the restoration of Saudi-Iranian relations through Chinese mediation and notes that Gulf states sought to de-escalate tensions following the outbreak of the war while strengthening contacts with potential security partners such as Pakistan, Egypt and Türkiye.
In his report, published in Views on the Gulf, a journal of the Gulf Research Center, he argues that the Gulf states’ decision not to respond directly with military force to Iranian attacks was not a sign of weakness. Rather, it reflected a deep political understanding of the risks of widening the conflict and turning it into a full-scale regional war with consequences that could prove difficult to contain.
The US Role in the Region
According to Minuto-Rizzo, the United States remains the cornerstone of Gulf security despite growing debate over the past two decades about the nature of Washington’s role in the region. In this context, he recalls discussions within NATO at the beginning of the century, in which he participated, regarding the Gulf’s importance as a strategic partner, stressing that the region has remained firmly on Washington’s security agenda.
At the same time, he says the recent war exposed the limits of some traditional assumptions about deterrence. He argues that one reason for the shortcomings exposed by the crisis was the United States’ decision to enter a war against Iran that proved more complex than initially anticipated.
Nevertheless, the ambassador does not expect any significant reduction in the US presence in the Gulf given the region’s strategic importance, although US-Israeli relations could see more visible divergences on certain issues in the future.
Lessons Learned
The President of the NATO Defense College Foundation believes one of the key lessons of the war is the need to establish clear political and strategic objectives before engaging in any military confrontation. He warns against underestimating Iran as a regional power that will remain an influential actor regardless of the war’s outcome.
As for the future of regional security, the former NATO official argues that a multi-level security approach represents the most realistic option for Gulf states, particularly if members of the Gulf Cooperation Council succeed in strengthening security and military integration.
“Security partnerships do not fully align in terms of objectives and interests, but diversifying them helps build a stronger safety net capable of addressing challenges,” he says.
Minuto-Rizzo argues that NATO provides an advanced institutional framework for security cooperation that goes beyond traditional bilateral relationships, citing the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative as a mechanism that offers broad opportunities for training, coordination and capacity-building between the alliance and Gulf countries.
He says renewing partnership with NATO could open significant opportunities for Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to benefit from the alliance’s accumulated military and operational expertise while also enhancing strategic dialogue and consultation between military and political leaders, helping anticipate crises and prevent their escalation.
Minuto-Rizzo also stresses the importance of strengthening Europe’s presence in the Gulf, arguing that Europe can make a meaningful contribution to regional security and stability through balanced partnerships based on shared interests rather than purely military considerations.
The President of the NATO Defense College Foundation concludes that the most important message for Arab states is the need to take control of their strategic decision-making and overcome divisions that have weakened the region for decades. Building a stable security architecture, he says, requires combining self-reliance with diversified international partnerships in a way that ensures balance and stability in a region that continues to face complex and constantly evolving challenges.
