Catching up to the steep decline in the price of Strategy (MSTR), Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brett Knoblauch cut his 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $229 from $560, citing a weaker environment for raising capital tied to bitcoin
The new target still suggests nearly 30% upside from the current price of $180, with Knoblauch maintaining his overweight rating.
Strategy has built its business model around raising money via common stock, preferred stock and convertible debt offerings, and using the cash to buy more bitcoin. The flywheel worked wonderfully for years, propelling MSTR to eye-popping returns since its first bitcoin purchase in 2020. Over the past year, though, investors have been less willing to value Strategy at a high premium to its bitcoin stack. Combined with bitcoin’s lame price performance, that’s sent MSTR lower by about 70% from its peak in late 204.
Cantor now calculates Strategy’s fully adjusted market net asset value (mNAV) at just 1.18x — still a premium but down from the far higher levels of the past. This constrains Michael Saylor and team from raising money through what would now potentially be dilutive sales of common stock.
Knoblauch thus slashed his forecast for Strategy’s annual capital market proceeds to $7.8 billion from $22.5 billion. The value assigned to Strategy’s treasury operations — essentially, how much potential upside it can capture by raising capital and buying bitcoin — fell from $364 per share to just $74.
Still, Knoblauch hasn’t given up on the firm. “This is a function of both falling bitcoin prices and lower multiples,” he wrote in his Friday note. While he sees the current market as a headwind, his overweight rating signals confidence that the strategy could work again if bitcoin prices recover and investor appetite for leveraged exposure returns.
That view was echoed in a separate note from Mizuho, which took a more optimistic stance on Strategy’s short-term financial position. Following a $1.44 billion equity raise, the firm has built a cash reserve large enough to cover 21 months of preferred stock dividends. Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins said this gives Strategy the flexibility to hold its position without needing to sell bitcoin.
At a recent event hosted by Mizuho, CFO Andrew Kang outlined a cautious approach to future fundraising. He said the firm has no plans to refinance its convertible debt before the first maturity in 2028. Instead, it will rely on preferred equity, which gives it access to capital while preserving its bitcoin holdings.
Kang also made clear that the firm will only return to issuing new equity when its mNAV climbs above 1 — a signal that the market once again values its bitcoin exposure at a premium. If that doesn’t happen, and capital becomes harder to raise, bitcoin sales could be considered, though only as a last resort.
The company appears to be taking a page from its 2022 playbook, when it paused bitcoin purchases during a market downturn and resumed buying once conditions improved. Analysts say this strategy — staying patient and liquid — could help Strategy navigate the current slump.
Read more: Strategy Still the Premier Bitcoin Proxy, Benchmark Says, Rejecting ‘Doom’ Narrative