- US says Hormuz flows almost 9m bpd
- Independent estimates at lower levels
- Americans’ methodology questioned
US claims of a rebound in Gulf oil exports are challenged by tanker data showing that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, analysts have told AGBI.
Experts say Washington’s figures are difficult to reconcile with the physical market: tanker traffic has fallen again this week, independent estimates show lower flows, and the US has not disclosed its methodology – potentially giving markets a misleading picture of how much supply continues to be choked.
Roughly 20 percent of the world’s traded oil – about 20 million barrels per day – used to pass through the narrow strait separating Iran from Oman.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that the seven-day average for oil flowing through Hormuz had climbed to almost 9 million barrels per day, rising to 15 million bpd once alternative pipelines and export routes were included.
Even after allowing for “dark” vessels – ships that switch off their transponders or otherwise operate with limited visibility – analysts questioned the claim that 9 million bpd were flowing through Hormuz.
“I have the seven-day moving average of exiting Hormuz oil flow peaking at around 7 mbpd, not nine, last week,” said Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context.
Even so, the number represents a substantial recovery in flows, according to analysts at private banking group Julius Baer.
“Global and US inventories are holding up much better than many had feared only a short time ago,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next-generation research at Bank Julius Baer.
Nine million bpd would equate to about 63 million barrels over seven days, or more than 30 very large crude carriers that can each transport up to 2 million barrels.
“I’m not seeing enough outbound movement to account for that openly,” said Arsenio Longo, Berlin-based founder of maritime intelligence company Huax.
Wright defended the figures, saying on social media platform X that the data came from the US Department of Energy in coordination with the US military. He said private-sector estimates undercount vessels leaving Hormuz because some ships are moving covertly.
“Chris Wright claims private sources, but all the tanker trackers use satellites and monitor dark transits too,” said Robin Mills, AGBI columnist and CEO of Qamar Energy.
There is also a second discrepancy in Washington’s numbers: how much crude is bypassing Hormuz altogether.
Alternative export routes
Wright said between 5 million and 7 million bpd are leaving the region through upgraded pipelines and alternative export facilities.
“The East-West and Fujairah pipelines have rerouted [around] 4 mbpd, not 5-7 mbpd, according to my numbers based on incremental exports out of both port regions,” Johnston said.
The divergence is particularly striking because observable vessel traffic through Hormuz has fallen.
Six vessels transited the strait on Monday – down from a 10-day average of 11 ships – falling to just one on Wednesday, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters. Maritime traffic through Hormuz picked up on Thursday with 13 confirmed crossings, Kpler said.
There may be movements visible to US military surveillance that are difficult for commercial providers to identify, but analysts said Washington would need to disclose more about its methodology before the 9 million bpd figure can be reconciled with the physical market.
It also remains unclear which seven-day period Wright was referring to, what products are included under “oil”, whether cargoes are counted when loaded or when they transit the strait, and how covert voyages are reconstructed.
“A lot depends on what Wright includes under ‘oil’, if that means crude, condensate and products, and if dark voyages are being reconstructed afterwards,” Longo said.
“If those volumes are really moving, we should also start seeing them show up further down the chain in discharge and destination data,” he said, adding he could not independently confirm evidence supporting the figure.
Further reading:
The growing use of shuttle operations can inflate transit figures and overstate the number of vessels navigating the strait.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has used dark tanker shuttle voyages to move Iraqi crude through Hormuz before transferring cargoes ship-to-ship to larger tankers outside the Gulf, according to Bloomberg.
“With the Adnoc shuttle model, the same ship can make repeated crossings, so transit numbers can rise without telling you much about the number of separate cargoes,” Longo said.
“The shuttle system can lift tanker numbers. I just wouldn’t treat that as a direct proxy for export volume.”
Adnoc confirmed that two of its vessels were attacked while transiting Hormuz on Thursday, bringing to 18 the number of its ships targeted by missiles and drones since the war began.