India’s already-weak inbound tourism is estimated to go down 15–20% this year as the Iran War severs the aviation corridors that deliver the bulk of long-haul visitors to the country, according to a new report from PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The decline is the sharpest external shock to hit an already-weak inbound market in years, with leisure travel from Europe and North America bearing the heaviest impact. Booking windows have compressed, itinerary flexibility has become a precondition, and the gap between travel interest and confirmed bookings has widened.
In 2025, India recorded 9 million foreign tourists, which was 9% less than 2024 and 17% less than the pre-pandemic high of 10.93 million arrivals.
Rajeev Kohli, joint managing director of Creative Travel, estimated that 10–15% of projected inbound tourism business for the year is already lost. “Even where demand exists, travelers are facing constraints in reaching India due to lim