A significant healthcare workforce shortage is projected to persist through 2030 , driven by an aging population, workforce burnout and educational bottlenecks, according to new research from AMN Healthcare.
The study analyzed a five-year representative sample of AMN’s allied, nursing, and physician and advanced practice provider search engagements, as well as external data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Healthcare organizations are planning for a future where workforce demand is being shaped by multiple forces at once, from aging demographics and chronic disease to rural access challenges, physician shortages and rapid changes in technology,” AMN CEO Cary Grace said in a press release.
All baby boomers will have reached 65 by 2030, with older adults expected to represent approximately 20% of the US population, according to the Healthcare Staffing Projections Through 2030 white paper. In addition, more than 130 million US adults are living with two or more chronic conditions, while more than 60% of adults 18 to 34 years old report at least one chronic condition.
Key findings from the report include:
Physician shortages. Expected to reach up to 86,000 by 2036, with primary care and specialty roles most affected. More than 30% of active physicians are 60 or older, and 20% are 65 or older.
RN supply. Although RN demand has decreased from pandemic-era highs, it’s still not keeping pace with demand. AMN’s analysis found the decline in filled positions was even more pronounced, with the average fill rate for the top five RN specialties decreasing nearly 7% from 2021 to 2025.
Rural staffing gaps. The urban RN fill rate in 2025 was nearly three times the rural rate, highlighting the persistent challenge rural facilities face in securing nursing talent. More than 7,700 designated Health Professional Shortage Areas for primary care affect 76 million Americans, and an estimated 13,254 additional primary care providers are needed to eliminate those designations; however, only 2% of new physicians express a desire to work in less-populated areas.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law in July 2025, allocates $50 billion over five years for rural healthcare. However, funding may not be sufficient to counteract the pressures introduced by other sections of the bill, the researchers found, and anticipated funding cuts and operational changes are projected to lead to further closure of many rural hospitals and clinics.
AI and automation. Efficiency improvements through AI task automation could result in nurses reclaiming between 13% and 21% of their working hours, equating to 240 to 400 hours per nurse each year. Expanding benefits of AI include applicant tracking systems to expedite candidate screening and reduce time –to hire, and predictive analytics to monitor workload and employee engagement.
The report also found AI usage among physicians is 81%, more than double what it was in 2023. Additionally, more than 75% of physicians believe AI improves their ability to care for patients.
Allied health. Demand for CT technologists has more than doubled since 2021, representing the most significant and sustained growth among the top five allied specialties analyzed.
Other allied health professions showing much faster growth than the national average include occupational therapy assistants, up 18%; physical therapist assistants, up 16%; speech-language pathologists, up 15%; respiratory therapists, up12%; and physical therapists, up 11%.
“Staffing challenges are no longer isolated to one discipline, region or care setting,” Robin Johnson, AMN group president of nursing, allied and physician solutions, said in a press release. “The data points to a healthcare labor market that will require more precise planning, greater workforce flexibility and stronger pipelines across physicians, nurses, advanced practice providers and allied health professionals.”