Is Joby Aviation (JOBY) Undervalued On FAA Progress And Toyota Production Ties?

Regulatory milestones reshape the Joby Aviation story

Joby Aviation (JOBY) has advanced in the FAA type certification process and joined the White House eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, while also deepening its manufacturing collaboration with Toyota to prepare for scaled commercial production.

See our latest analysis for Joby Aviation.

Despite regulatory momentum, Joby Aviation’s share price has been under pressure, with the stock down about 50% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return declining 58.33%, which suggests recent progress has not yet shifted overall risk perceptions.

If Joby Aviation’s ride in eVTOL has your attention, you may also want to see which other AI focused businesses are gaining traction through our 33 AI small caps

Joby Aviation is building real momentum on regulation and production partnerships, yet the share price has fallen sharply in 2026. Is this a strong business temporarily marked down, or is the current valuation already fair for the risks involved?

Most Popular Narrative: 35.7% Undervalued

The most followed narrative currently pegs Joby Aviation’s fair value at $11.12 a share, compared with the last close of $7.15, which frames a large upside gap that investors are trying to explain.

The company is investing heavily ahead of broad commercial adoption, including scaling manufacturing with Toyota, building out facilities in Marina and Dayton, and preparing global operations. This could keep cash use high and delay earnings leverage if real air taxi demand or pricing power falls short of expectations, which may put pressure on future net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this narrative still reaches a double digit fair value? It leans on rapid revenue expansion, a sharp margin swing and a future earnings multiple that would turn heads. Curious which assumptions have the biggest impact on that $11.12 figure?

Result: Fair Value of $11.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, Joby Aviation’s story also hinges on execution risks around certification timing and capital intensity, which could keep losses high and slow any path toward scale.

Find out about the key risks to this Joby Aviation narrative.

Another view on Joby Aviation’s valuation

The analyst narrative tags Joby Aviation as undervalued at a fair value of $11.12, yet the company currently carries a P/B of 3.6x versus about 2x for peers and 1.8x for the wider Airlines group. That richer multiple can mean extra downside risk if expectations reset. Which story do you think the market will follow?

To see how that P/B gap is framed using a fair ratio and what it could mean for future pricing, take a closer look at the valuation work behind it through our See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on Joby Aviation’s valuation and risk profile, it helps to cut through the noise and look at the numbers yourself. To weigh the upside against the concerns directly, start with the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Joby Aviation?

If you find Joby Aviation compelling, do not stop there. Broader context from other stocks can sharpen your judgment and help you spot opportunities sooner.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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