Iran war boosts Beijing ahead of Trump-Xi summit in China, experts say

Analysts say the war in Iran has delivered some big strategic wins to China ahead of Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing.

But China’s President Xi Jinping also has strong incentives to work with his American counterpart to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Mr Trump has left Washington for the first visit to China by a US president since 2017, when he was previously in office.

The summit was originally expected to focus on trade and economic ties. But it was delayed by the war in Iran, which is now overshadowing other issues.

As he left the White House, Mr Trump told reporters he would have a “long talk” with President Xi about the war.

But he also said: 

And when asked if he would push Mr Xi to put any pressure on Iran, he said: “I don’t think we need any help with Iran.”

The trip follows rollercoaster relations between the two men. They engaged in a bruising trade war after Mr Trump’s re-election, but the US president frequently praises Mr Xi.

“We’re going to have a great relationship for many, many decades to come,” Mr Trump said before his departure.

“My relationship with President Xi is a fantastic one. We’ve always gotten along and we’re doing very well with China.”

Boost to Beijing

The war has given Beijing a boost in its long-running power struggle with the US, shifting the dynamics of the summit, analysts say.

“Regardless of which way you slice it, it’s difficult to see how the US war on Iran hasn’t redounded quite significantly to Beijing’s strategic benefit,” said Ali Wyne, an expert on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

He pointed to factors including:

• the repositioning of American military assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East.
• the US’s likely reliance on Chinese critical minerals to replenish its degraded stockpile of missile interceptors.
• a growing international appetite for China’s renewable-energy technology exports, as nations looked to decrease dependence on oil from the Middle East.
• China’s possible role in encouraging Iran to restart negotiations with the US.

But China-watchers say Washington and Beijing also now share some key objectives in the Middle East.

“It’s important for the United States to understand that China, for its own domestic economic reasons, wants to see the Strait [of Hormuz] reopened,” former prime minister Kevin Rudd told an event in New York.

Speaking in his capacity as president of the Asia Society think tank, Mr Rudd said: 

China’s reliance on LNG exports from the Gulf gave Mr Xi another reason to want the strait reopened, he said.

Double-edged sword

Mr Rudd said Mr Xi also had a bigger goal for the summit: the stabilisation of US-China relations until at least the end of next year.

“A stable relationship with the United States and a mechanism to manage that stability is better for China’s economic interests,” Mr Rudd said.

“America is still a phenomenally important market for Chinese goods,” he said. Mr Xi was also hoping to avoid more unilateral tariff measures and export controls on American products, such as computer-chip technology, he added.

Former US diplomat Anja Manuel, the executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group, said the war had become a “bit of a double-edged sword for Beijing”.

“China is getting hit hard by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz on the economic side,” she said.

“But on the political side, they’re winning, because they can go around to Africa, Latin America, other countries around the world and say, ‘we, China, are the steady superpower while the Americans are acting erratically and starting wars all over the place’.”

In her diplomatic career, Ms Manuel negotiated with China over Iran’s nuclear program. She now doubts Beijing will be keen to be get too involved in negotiations to end the war.

“They’re hesitant to play that kind of active role in diplomacy,” she said.

“So I would expect, even if asked, it’s very unlikely for the Chinese to be very forward-leaning in trying to resolve the conflict.”