Japan’s acute dependence on Middle East crude, with 94% of imports sourced from the region and 93% of those moving through Hormuz, means any delay in strait normalisation will weigh heavily on Asian refining margins and petrochemical feedstock costs. Naphtha tightness is a particular pressure point given its role across plastics and auto components supply chains. The survey’s findings suggest Japanese end-users will continue drawing on alternative sources and national reserves well into the second half of 2026, sustaining elevated spot premiums for non-Middle Eastern crude grades. The minesweeping caveat is a reminder that physical reopening of the strait is a longer and more complex process than a diplomatic agreement alone can resolve.
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Nearly half of Japanese firms expect more than six months to return to normal operations after a ceasefire, with almost all worried about oil procurement despite government assurances, a Reuters survey shows.
Summary:
Source: Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research, 3-12 June 2026, 215 respondents from 490 companies contacted
- Nearly half of respondents expect business operations to take more than six months to normalise after a ceasefire
- Breakdown: 17% said three months, 31% said six months, 39% said one year, 8% said three years
- Japan sourced 94% of crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments transiting Hormuz
- Almost all firms are worried about oil and oil products procurement; 27% deeply worried, 69% somewhat worried
- Naphtha supply constraints flagged as a key pressure point for petrochemical and manufacturing supply chains
- Survey was conducted before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced
Nearly half of Japanese companies expect it will take more than six months for business operations to return to normal following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, underscoring the depth of the supply shock still facing the world’s fourth-largest economy even as a peace framework takes shape.
A Reuters survey conducted by Nikkei Research between June 3 and 12, before the US-Iran interim agreement was announced, found almost all Japanese firms remain worried about procurement of oil and oil products despite government assurances that national supply is being secured. Of 215 companies that responded, 39% said recovery would take up to a year and 8% put it at three years.
Japan’s vulnerability is structural. The country sourced 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East last year, with 93% of those shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war began on February 28, Japan has been drawing down national oil reserves and scrambling for alternative supply sources.
Naphtha emerged as a particular concern. The petrochemical feedstock, used in everything from plastic bags to automobile components, is in constrained supply, with one rubber manufacturer noting it could only secure two months of firm commitments. A wholesaler flagged that minesweeping alone would take time, adding a physical dimension to the reopening timeline that diplomatic agreements cannot shortcut.
The survey’s risk-averse tone likely reflects conditions before the ceasefire framework was announced, but the structural exposures it captures remain unchanged.