In its first meeting after the five state legislative assembly elections held in April-May this year, the Opposition INDIA bloc has recommitted itself to launch a coordinated fight against the Modi government.
The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and Bengal, and the minor inroads it has made in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, may seem ominous for the opposition parties in India. Yet, the ruling party is facing a difficult moment in its 12-year rule today with high fuel prices, inflation and growing unemployment.
This is the governance weakness that the opposition INDIA bloc wants to leverage.
A political campaign launched by the “Cockroach Janata Party,” born out of a satirical meme on social media, attracted 22 million followers on Instagram in no time. That points to deep anger and despair with the regime, especially among the youth.
The general discontent in society is palpable; the opposition can see it. Protests over corruption in the education sector, especially the NEET (entrance exam for medical colleges) paper leak controversy, and frequent examination related failures under the National Testing Agency and the Central Board of Secondary Education, have fueled public anger.
Surprisingly, however, such public anger has not translated into electoral losses for the BJP. Nor has the opposition been able to convert the discontent in society into votes as yet. The momentum generated by the BJP failing to secure a majority on its own in the 2024 general election seems to have been frittered away by the opposition.
The Congress victory in Kerala, which increased the number of Congress-ruled states to four, is politically significant. However, it neither establishes the Congress as a credible national alternative to the BJP nor does it halt the BJP’s continued expansion across the electoral geography of India. In a parliamentary democracy, persistent public dissatisfaction would ordinarily strengthen the principal opposition. However, that has not happened in India.
A change of government through anti-incumbency is a normal feature of democratic politics. Curiously, however, the BJP has repeatedly defied this logic. BJP-ruled Gujarat remains the most striking example, where the party has retained power for decades. This phenomenon of the BJP defying anti-incumbency becomes even more difficult to explain when one finds that governance and development indicators of many non-BJP states are as good or even better than those of the BJP-ruled states.
The BJP’s success in the recent elections seems governance-neutral. The economy is not doing well and a few supporters of the government have also voiced their concern. Society at large is restive, with examination scandals and corruption scandals leading to Gen Z protests.
The opposition parties have been unsuccessful in channeling this anger and frustration against the government to mount a political challenge.
One-party-dominance is not new to Indian politics. The Congress party enjoyed such pre-eminence for several decades after independence. However, there is something new and unusual about the emerging dominance of the BJP over the last decade. Although the 2024 general election revealed the vulnerabilities of the BJP – it could not secure a majority in parliament on its own – it bounced back, trouncing the opposition in a series of state elections, regaining lost momentum.
The usual explanations offered for the BJP’s dominance include allegations of electoral manipulation, institutional capture, a compromised Election Commission, misuse of investigative agencies, and the advantages of incumbency. While some of these concerns may contain elements of truth, they remain politically ineffective unless backed by convincing evidence and translated into a persuasive public campaign. The question before the opposition is: How can they become electorally competitive under existing conditions?
No one would dispute that a healthy democracy needs a strong and vibrant opposition. However, the continuing dominance of the BJP has led many to suggest that it is pursuing an agenda of “opposition-free India.”
Yet the predicament of the opposition cannot be attributed solely to the ruling party. The INDIA bloc has its own weaknesses. It was put together hastily before the 2024 general election and it struggled to stay together from its inception. The bloc was held together not by a common political perspective or vision but by the opposition of its members to the BJP. The alliance suffered from contested leadership, mutual suspicions, and irreconcilable ambitions of its members.
Former Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, one of the architects of the alliance, abandoned it when prospects of a leadership role eroded. Several constituent parties, including the Trinamool Congress and the DMK, have, at various times, partnered with the BJP. Consequently, anti-BJP sentiments alone proved insufficient ideological glue to hold the alliance together.
Other parties such as the Samajwadi Party and the Aam Aadmi Party have historically expanded at the Congress’ expense and, therefore, view the Congress as both an ally and a competitor. The Congress itself entered the alliance burdened by a strategic dilemma: Should it prioritize revival or survival?
However, despite such misgivings within the INDIA bloc, the result of the 2024 election was quite heartening as the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance were challenged on the issues of unemployment, economic distress, and threat to the Constitution.
The alliance, however, failed to consolidate these gains. The net result was that the BJP’s electoral juggernaut moved on triumphantly.
Today, many regional parties have been weakened, and the leadership aspirations of several opposition figures have been curtailed. Ironically, this has created a situation that may benefit both the BJP and the Congress. As regional alternatives diminish, the Congress is increasingly being recognized as the principal national opposition force. However, recognition alone is not enough.
The Congress faces the daunting task of rebuilding its organization across the country. Its organization has become weak or dysfunctional in several states. A campaign centered solely on personalities, without a sustained connection to everyday economic concerns, is unlikely to succeed.
Similarly, an excessive focus on allegations of electoral malpractice, manipulation of electronic voting machines (EVMs), or vote theft by excluding bona fide voters has not resonated strongly with the public.
Nonetheless, the commitment of the Congress to secularism, social justice, inclusivity, and constitutional values remains a significant challenge to the BJP’s ideological project of creating a majoritarian Indian state. However, the party has to go beyond this and provide a vision of governance that is broader, and should also have a popular appeal, while remaining different from the BJP’s vision. Claiming victory over ensuring a caste-census or demanding the resignation of the education minister for the examination scandal cannot be a substitute for a comprehensive agenda of social and economic transformation.
Public dissatisfaction with the government undoubtedly exists. But discontent alone does not produce political change. Voters must be persuaded that a viable alternative to generate employment, ensure economic growth, implement education reforms and ensure institutional accountability exists. Unless the opposition can offer a comprehensive program of transforming governance which is both achievable and popular, it cannot hope to harness fragmented public anger. Until that happens, the BJP will continue to leverage its organizational depth and reach to gain electoral success.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.