According to a report by Systematix, the combination of a likely below-normal monsoon and elevated agro-input costs driven by global conflicts creates a sombre outlook for the agricultural sector.
“The combination of a likely below-normal 2026 monsoon and elevated agro-input costs due to the US-Iran conflict creates a challenging outlook for agricultural production, rural consumption, and inflation management,” noted the report.
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This shift follows a strong 2025 monsoon and mirrors the disruptive 2023 deficit that previously hurt Kharif output and dampened rural consumption.
“ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail and are likely to persist through April-June (80% probability). However, El Nino is expected to emerge during May-July with a 61% probability and persist through the end of 2026, with roughly a 25% chance of it becoming a very strong event,” the report stated.
Citing Skymet Weather, the report projected the southwest monsoon at 94 per cent of the long-period average, which is classified as below normal. The deficit is expected to weaken rainfall primarily in the second half of the season, specifically during August and September, while the initial June-July period may remain relatively stable. This uneven distribution poses a high risk to the northern, western, and central parts of India.
“The South-West monsoon remains critical for India’s economic growth, as a strong kharif harvest boosts rural incomes and drives demand for FMCGs, tractors, automobiles, two-wheelers, jewellery, and consumer durables,” the report noted.
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The climate threat is further complicated by the US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “Compounding the weather risk is the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for fertilizers, raw materials (ammonia, phosphoric acid, sulphur, natural gas/LNG), and fuel,” the report detailed.
The resulting supply chain disruptions have already pushed up global fertilizer prices, increasing the financial burden on Indian farmers and the central government.
The report warns that higher fertilizer and food subsidies, combined with under-recoveries on petroleum products, could strain government finances. If global prices remain elevated and monsoon conditions weaken domestic demand, the subsidy burden could rise by Rs 10,000 crore to Rs 25,000 crore in FY27.