Saudi Arabia’s recent defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan may intensify rifts with the UAE amidst shifting geopolitical alliances.
A new defence agreement, dubbed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, was signed on August 7 in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The pact stipulates that an attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all, marking a significant shift in regional security dynamics.
The agreement has attracted scrutiny from prominent voices in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Analysts have raised concerns about why Saudi Arabia chose to pursue a security partnership with nations outside the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), despite the existing political and military framework established by the bloc, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.
Critics argue that the GCC, formed in 1981 after the Iran-Iraq war, is designed to ensure collective security among its members, with laws stating that an assault on one member is an assault on all. This framework has led to established military cooperation mechanisms, including a Unified Military Command.
Among the critics is Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political analyst formerly associated with the UAE presidency, who questioned the rationale behind the agreement. He remarked on X, “Strengthening Gulf military and political cooperation and unifying the Gulf house is far more important.” Abdulla also raised the question of what adversary this new alliance is aimed at confronting, suggesting that alliances involving external powers might dilute focus on regional security.
Responses from Saudi commentators have pointedly highlighted the UAE’s own defence partnerships with India and Israel, questioning the inconsistency in criticism. Faisal al-Arabi al-Harthi, chairperson of the Riyadh-based Asbar Centre for Studies and Research, refuted claims that the Mecca pact is directed against specific adversaries. Instead, he characterised it as a measure to enhance collective military capabilities and ensure regional stability.
Further complicating the dynamic, Abdulaziz al-Tuwaijri, a former official with the Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, stated that the UAE’s alignment with Israel and India should be scrutinised similarly. He noted that the UAE has engaged in substantial security arrangements with Israel, particularly following drone and missile threats from Iran, which included an Iron Dome air defence system deployment to the UAE.
The Mecca agreement seems poised to further entrench the existing rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two nations that have historically maintained close relations. While they remain allies, their foreign policy approaches are increasingly diverging, with Saudi Arabia leaning towards strengthening ties with Turkey and Pakistan, while the UAE has forged closer security relationships with India and Israel.
As regional dynamics continue to evolve, the implications of the Mecca pact remain to be fully realised, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and alliances within the Middle East.