NEW REPORT – What soaring oil prices mean for Argentina, Brazil, Guyana and Mexico

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting rise in international oil prices have reshaped the global energy landscape, generating differentiated impacts across Latin America depending on each country’s energy profile. Argentina, Brazil, Guyana and Mexico face a mix of opportunities and risks stemming from their roles as exporters, importers or hybrid players in the hydrocarbons market.

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While the increase in Brent — which has surpassed US$100/b — is boosting export revenues, investment and activity in countries with production capacity, it is also intensifying inflationary pressures, raising energy import costs and exposing structural vulnerabilities, particularly in those with dependence on refined fuels or imported natural gas.

At the regional level, a shift is underway from an agenda centered on energy transition toward a growing priority on energy security, reinforcing general interest in assets outside conflict zones. This shift particularly benefits countries with abundant resources and expansion potential, such as Argentina (Vaca Muerta) and Guyana (offshore), while consolidating Brazil as a resilient exporter and leaving Mexico in a more complex position due to its structural reliance on energy imports.

In this context, governments have adopted different strategies to mitigate the effect of the external shock, including subsidies, price controls, investment incentives and fiscal measures. However, challenges remain in infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, regulatory frameworks and geopolitical risks, which will shape each country’s ability to capitalize on the oil upcycle.

This report analyzes public policy responses, effects on prices, production and investment, geopolitical positioning and the main risks for the oil sector in the four countries, offering a comparative view of the energy shock across the region.