The agency stated that “an expansion of more stable consumer businesses will improve the earnings and cash flow stability of Reliance Industries,” with rising earnings from the digital services segment reducing the group’s exposure to the volatile hydrocarbon industry.
S&P forecasts that digital services and the retail business will contribute about 60% of operating cash flow in fiscal 2026, while the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and oil and gas segments will account for the remaining 40%.
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Reliance Industries’ position in India’s telecom sector will continue to support earnings, as wireless subscribers are expected to grow 3–6% over the next 12–24 months. According to the agency, average revenue per user for Reliance Jio may rise as subscribers shift to higher-priced plans and data consumption increases. S&P noted that the company has previously led industry-wide tariff hikes twice.
S&P projects consolidated EBITDA to expand 12–14% to ₹1.85 trillion–₹1.95 trillion in fiscal 2026. Digital services and JioStar are expected to contribute about ₹800 billion, or 43%, and retail around ₹270 billion, or 14%. Energy-related earnings are projected to remain stable at ₹750 billion–₹800 billion, with the company demonstrating resilience across volatile cycles.
Earnings growth is expected to outpace high capital expenditure over the next 12–24 months. S&P estimates a ratio of adjusted debt to EBITDA of 1.5x–1.6x through fiscal 2027, compared with 1.7x over the past two years. The agency said that “higher earnings contributions from more stable consumer businesses will reduce earnings volatility, which will support leverage predictability.”
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Capex is projected at about ₹1.4 trillion through fiscal 2027, slightly below the peak outflow of ₹1.5 trillion in fiscal 2024. S&P expects continued positive free operating cash flow across key businesses as Reliance expands its O2C operations, deploys its 5G network, and accelerates retail rollout.
The agency also noted that Reliance’s financial policy supports the A- rating, stating that the company will manage spending within operating cash flow and maintain adherence to its internal leverage target. Reliance has disclosed a net debt-to-EBITDA target below 1x, excluding spectrum liabilities, compared with 0.59x as of September 30, 2025. S&P said this target corresponds to its adjusted debt-to-EBITDA metric of about 2x.
According to S&P, the stable outlook reflects expectations that Reliance will maintain strong market positions and expand cash flows despite heavy capex, with adjusted debt to EBITDA remaining below 2x over the next 12–24 months.
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Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd ended at ₹1,538.40, down by ₹0.60, or 0.039%, on the BSE.
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