Five-year drive seen accelerating shift to greener hydrocarbon system
China aims to raise its domestic oil and gas supply to 440 million metric tons of oil equivalent by 2030, which industry experts believe will substantially bolster national energy security while accelerating the sector’s high-quality green transformation amid the construction of a modern energy system.
The ambitious targets were outlined in the newly released 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for petroleum and natural gas development, jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration.
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The blueprint sets forth comprehensive strategic priorities for upstream exploration, midstream infrastructure connectivity, strategic energy storage buffering and decarbonization over the next five-year period.
To strengthen domestic distribution networks, the country will construct an additional 20,000 kilometers of long-distance oil and gas pipelines by 2030. This infrastructure push will expand the nation’s total network to 220,000 km, markedly enhancing domestic supply chain resilience.
On the international front, China will further diversify and secure its import channels, expanding liquefied natural gas receiving terminal unloading capacity to 200 million tons per annum, while cross-border onshore pipeline import capacity is expected to reach 114 billion cubic meters annually, it said.
Dai Jiaquan, chief economist at the China National Petroleum Corp Economics and Technology Research Institute, said that compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, the newly unveiled blueprint sets a tone of making steady progress while maintaining sector-wide stability.
Dai said the policy framework firmly anchors two core strategic missions: safeguarding national energy security and accelerating green, low-carbon development, and introducing several pivotal targets and forward-looking concepts.
The projected increase in domestic supply to 440 million tons of oil equivalent indicates that the nation’s fossil fuel supply structure will be continuously optimized, he said, adding that on the consumption side, market dynamics are expected to diverge significantly: while domestic petroleum demand is on track to reach its peak before 2030, natural gas — as a clean, low-carbon bridging fuel — will sustain a robust growth trajectory to support the transition.
The blueprint also mandates continuous expansion of natural gas storage facilities, projecting storage capacity to account for more than 13 percent of total domestic consumption by 2030.
Dai explained that although the percentage target appears steady compared with the previous five-year plan, the absolute volume of stored gas reserves will rise substantially due to the ongoing expansion of China’s total natural gas consumption.
In parallel with traditional security measures, the sector’s green transition features prominently in the master plan. Annual carbon dioxide injection volume through Carbon Capture and Storage, and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage projects is projected to reach 10 million tons by 2030.
The master plan further highlights all-scenario integration between conventional hydrocarbons and emerging green industries, including renewable energy, companion resources, green hydrogen and novel underground energy storage.
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Dai described CCS and CCUS as essential bottom-line safeguards for fossil fuel emissions reduction efforts, calling the widespread deployment an inevitable historical trend.
“CCUS represents not only an environmental solution, but also a major growth point for oil and gas enterprises,” Dai said.
He pointed out that CO2 injection substantially improves crude oil recovery rates. Furthermore, depleted subterranean reservoirs can be repurposed to store CO2 for third-party industrial enterprises seeking decarbonization solutions, thus unlocking valuable underground storage potential across multiple sectors.
Contact the writers at zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn