Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has drafted a target to replace 11 to 14 nuclear reactors by the 2050s, the most concrete government commitment to large-scale nuclear construction since the Fukushima accident in March 2011.
METI presented the proposal to a subgroup of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, which advises the industry minister. The ministry puts the replacement capacity needed at 2.2-5.5 million kW by the 2040s, equivalent to roughly two to five reactors.
By the 2050s, including work completed in the earlier decade, that figure rises to 12.7-16 million kW, or approximately 11 to 14 reactors. Cabinet approval is expected within months.
The math behind the target is straightforward. Japan’s 7th Basic Energy Plan, adopted last February, calls for nuclear’s share of the electricity mix to climb from 8.5% in fiscal 2023 to about 20% by fiscal 2040. Hitting that number requires replacing aging units as they retire, and the retirements are coming fast.
Japan’s 2023 Cabinet plan warned that before 2040, more than 3 million kW of existing reactors will reach 60 years of operation, after which their supply capacity “will be significantly lost.”
The 20% nuclear target sits alongside equally steep ambitions for renewables and fossil fuels. The 7th Basic Energy Plan calls for renewables to rise from 22.9% to 40-50% of the power mix by fiscal 2040, while fossil fuels fall from nearly 69% to 30-40%. New reactor construction sits at the centre of that equation.
Japan cleared the legal path for new builds in February 2023, when Cabinet approved a policy allowing new reactor construction and extending permitted operating life from 40 to 60 years. Before that, the country had spent more than a decade effectively paralysed. Within 14 months of the Fukushima disaster, all 54 of Japan’s operating reactors had been shut down.
Of the 33 units that remain operable, only 15 have been restarted.
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