As a strong El Niño brews in the Pacific Ocean, its effects may be quite serious in India. The 2026 monsoon will be facing the biggest brunt, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issuing a sobering forecast. According to IMD, India will be facing a below-normal seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Earlier, the forecast was for 92% below average monsoon, with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall this season.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 82% chance of El Niño emerging between May and July 2026, reaching a 96% probability by the winter. Climate models indicate a two-in-three combined chance that this event will intensify into a strong to very strong El Niño by late 2026.
Since 1950, the world has witnessed only four Super El Niño events. If this happens, experts warn that the brewing phase of this phenomenon can disrupt the regular Walker Circulation, creating high-pressure conditions over the Indian subcontinent that suppress moist air and choke monsoon rains. Statistically, nearly 60% of El Niño years since 1951 have left India with deficient or below-normal monsoons.
Erratic rainfall
With a weaker monsoon on the cards, there are multiple things that can go wrong in India. The anticipated rainfall deficit poses an immediate threat to the Indian economy. Nearly 52% of India’s cultivated land remains entirely rain-fed, making over 40% of national food production heavily dependent on the Southwest Monsoon. Lower rainfall could reduce groundwater recharge, deplete reservoirs, and intensify water stress across India.
Also, the distribution of rainfall may be a bigger concern than total rainfall received throughout the monsoon season, with longer dry spells and erratic rainfall. As a result, break-monsoon conditions could become more frequent, affecting kharif sowing and crop productivity.
Also, a delayed or erratic monsoon could result in humid heatwaves across Northwest India. In fact, the El Niño could push 2026 to become one of the warmest years on record, with 2027 potentially surpassing 2024.
“Monsoon forecast is indicating more impact of El Niño. However, the number is not important, but the distribution of rainfall is. Models are not predicting a pretty picture, and we can expect a patchy distribution. Pakistan heatwaves peak in July, and if by that time the monsoon doesn’t reach parts of Northwest India, hot winds from Pakistan along with increased moisture influx from the Arabian Sea would lead to humid heatwaves or likely conditions across Northwest India,” said Professor Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor University of Maryland.
While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is projected to develop later in the season, meteorologists caution that it is unlikely to be powerful enough to fully neutralize the severe drying effects of this year’s formidable El Niño.
“2026 is going to be a testing ground for India amid climate change and the present geopolitical situation. The ongoing extreme heat conditions are causing alarm. We are expecting El Niño, whose effect would be visible in July or August. This is a deadly combination for India, especially for agriculture in India. With the ongoing fertiliser crunch, along with rising inflation, the world is now shifting towards agroecology, and this is the only way to deal with these impacts of climate change,” said Devinder Sharma, food policy analyst.