GDP growth could rise by an additional 1.5 percentage points above baseline projections, bringing the UAE’s GDP to an estimated $790 billion by 2031
The UAE has a significant opportunity to unlock health and economic value through early and effective obesity intervention. According to a recent report by AI economics policy advisory Whiteshield, commissioned by leading medicine company Lilly, accelerated intervention could help more than 1.2 million adults in the UAE transition out of obesity by 2031.
In an accelerated intervention scenario, where innovative weight loss solutions reach 57 percent of adults living with obesity, prevalence could fall by 15 percentage points by 2031. This could unlock up to $1.5 billion in cumulative healthcare savings, add $51 billion to GDP in 2031 alone and increase life expectancy by 2.4 years for those previously living with obesity, illustrating the scale of impact that timely, coordinated intervention could deliver across both health and economic outcomes.
Population health drives economic resilience and competitiveness
The report, titled ‘Beneath the Surface: The Hidden Socioeconomic Impacts of Weight Loss’, highlights that GDP growth could rise by an additional 1.5 percentage points above baseline projections, bringing the UAE’s GDP to an estimated $790 billion by 2031, underscoring the role of population health as a driver of economic resilience and competitiveness.
Worker productivity could increase by the equivalent of up to five additional working days per year per individual previously living with obesity, while annual individual income could rise by up to $772.
“For too long, obesity studies have been limited to a narrow equation comparing the cost of intervention with the cost of treatment. This report reveals, for the first time, the true scale of the benefits generated by weight loss and obesity treatment in the UAE — not only in terms of improving individual health, but also through economic and social benefits and positive impacts on the future workforce. The message is clear: effective obesity treatment policies are not only good health policies, they are also sound economic policies,” said Fadi Fara, CEO of Whiteshield.
“With recent advances in research and innovation, countries now have an unprecedented opportunity to address the economic and social burden of obesity with greater ambition and at greater speed than ever before,” Fara added.
Accelerated obesity interventions to add more than 17,000 individuals to the workforce
Accelerated obesity interventions could also lead to an estimated 75,000 additional births by 2031, of which 24,000 would be Emirati, while more than 17,000 additional individuals could join the workforce, including over 9,000 Emirati women, reinforcing the link between public health, workforce participation and long-term demographic sustainability.
The report also projects more than 2,000 additional bachelor’s degree enrolments and a 1.4 percent reduction in university dropout rates under the accelerated intervention scenario.
“Obesity is a complex, chronic disease that impacts not only individual health, but also workforce productivity, economic resilience and long-term national development. In the UAE, where obesity remains a significant public health challenge, evidence like this reinforces the need for coordinated, system-wide approaches that extend beyond healthcare alone,” said Leena Aziz, Senior Director, Corporate and Government Affairs, Gulf, Lilly.
“The UAE has made important progress in prioritizing health as part of its national agenda, and there is a clear opportunity to build on this momentum by further integrating prevention, early intervention and access to care. We are committed to collaborating across the healthcare ecosystem to improve understanding, reduce stigma and support more people earlier in their journey,” she added.