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Judging by the delegation that has been sent by the Iranians to Islamabad, hardliners have been preferred to moderates, hence the choice of Speaker of the Iranian Parliament as leader of the delegation. It is clear that the IRGC in Iran believes it has the whip hand in the talks. The reality is that the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) understands very little of the world outside Iran. Its generals believe that Israel is to the US what Hezbollah is to Iran, a proxy easily controlled. The fact is that Israel is not, and has never been, a proxy for any other country, even the US. It has taken its own decisions, often thereby causing annoyance in Washington. As for Iran, the IRGC is so heavily dependent on China that it has perforce to follow the agenda set by Beijing. And the plan of Beijing is to ensure that the US shifts focus from East Asia to the Middle East, in order to create favourable conditions for a move to effectively have the decisive voice in Taipei by the close of 2027. However, the Chinese leadership has underestimated the leader of the US delegation, VicePresident J.D. Vance. What Beijing seeks is another reprise in Islamabad of the 1938 Munich Agreement between France and the UK with Germany.
British Prime Minister Chamberlain blinked in the face of the Nazi war machine, and ceded the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany. Had he held firm, the Czechs themselves had the fortifications along the border of Sudetenland and Germany to hold off a German advance. All that Czechoslovakia would need from France and the UK would be the use of their air power to target the German attackers and sea power to blockade Germany. In 1938, Hitler could have been humiliated and perhaps ousted from power before he plunged the world into World War II in 1939 by invading Poland. In 2026, the IRGC can be similarly humiliated by US and Israeli forces, if the US were not to blink and in effect surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. Were it to do, control of the Strait would serve as an effective deterrent to other powers even as the clerical regime in Iran silently acquires nuclear capability. North Korea going nuclear has been a tragedy for the North Korean people themselves, who are suffering under the heel of Supreme Commander Kim. In the same way, an Iran going nuclear while the IRGC still controls the country would be a catastrophe for the people of Iran.
The silver lining is the fact that it is US Vice-President Vance who is leading the US side. J.D. Vance understands the tactics of the Chinese Communist Party leadership, as do some others in the Trump dispensation. Vance is certain to press Iran to denuclearize verifiably, but it is expected that this will meet with resistance from the Iranian side. As for Pakistan, while the country appears to be a favourite of President Trump, VicePresident Vance is aware of the links of GHQ Rawalpindi with the PLA, and knows that the military will try and push the Office of the General Secretary of the CCP line. The Chinese side wishes to see a dilution in US support for Taiwan by promising to cooperate in once again opening up the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and ensure that the IRGC remains in power. Vance has shown an independent and impressive side to his persona, including by making a very public visit to Budapest to shore up support for Viktor Orban. This further shows that Vance remembers his friends not just in good times but in bad, a trait that is the mark of a statesman.
The world is watching to see if Munich 1938 gets repeated in Islamabad 2026, by in effect a surrender to the IRGC through not removing them from control of the Strait of Hormuz. Such a concession would be resisted by the Arab allies of the US, who would thereafter break free of the security ties binding them to the US. Nor would they take kindly to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be resisted, by force if needed. Pakistan is hardly a neutral platform, for the military regards the Israelis as genocidal, forgetting (and even some exulting) in the October 7, 2023 terror attack on Israel by Hamas. The democracies prevailing in the talks in Pakistan are crucial to global security. The stakes are high, for both sides.
Should US Vice-President Vance succeed in securing the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the world would be spared the spectre of another international depression caused by the economic shocks of a vital waterway controlled by a radical force. What is clear is that Vance has no desire to be known as a US version of Neville Chamberlain, the British Prime Minister who genuflected to the Nazis in 1938. Expect a testy exchange of views. As for a breakdown in the talks, the stakes are so high that this is unlikely.