Heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon No.9 Bavi from July 13-14 temporarily disrupted copper supply across Northeast China (covering Province Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning), with logistics interruptions tightening regional spot availability and lifting refined copper premiums, Mysteel’s survey showed.
The storm caused severe transportation disruptions across Liaoning, Jilin and surrounding areas. In Shenyang, Liaoning, authorities suspended schools, work, production, public transport and business operations as flooding affected parts of the city. Road closures delayed outbound shipments from local copper smelters, while raw material deliveries to downstream processors were also disrupted, causing regional refined copper spot circulation to nearly grind to a halt.
The logistics constraints temporarily tightened spot supply in the Northeast market, with downstream processors’ precautionary purchases ahead of the storm also pushing local refined copper spot premiums modestly higher. Expectations of reduced smelter output due to delayed raw material arrivals further supported firmer prices among spot holders.
Data Source: Mysteel
Despite the short-term disruption, the overall impact on China’s copper market is expected to remain largely regional. The heavy rainfall is forecast to ease after July 14, allowing transportation and shipments to gradually resume. Production at local smelters and processors has not suffered significant damage, limiting the risk of prolonged supply losses.
Mysteel expects regional spot availability to remain relatively tight in the near term as logistics normalize and smelters work through raw material delays. However, with Northeast China accounting for only a small share of the country’s refined copper production capacity and downstream demand remaining subdued, the impact on China’s overall copper supply-demand balance is expected to be limited.
Data Source: Mysteel
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com