said it delivered record cash flow and met full-year production and cost guidance in fiscal 2026, but investors appeared to focus on higher costs and capital spending ahead. The Australian miner reported 715,000 ounces of production and 66,000 tonnes of , with all-in sustaining costs of AUD 1,717 per ounce. The stock fell 3.65% to $11.35, down from $11.78, leaving it well above its 52-week low but far below its peak for the year.
Key Takeaways
- Evolution Mining said FY 2026 was its strongest year yet for cash generation, with group cash flow of AUD 1.4 billion.
- The company met guidance for gold production and all-in sustaining costs, while copper output came in slightly below plan because of weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry.
- Margins remained high, with an all-in sustaining cost margin of 71% and a group cash flow margin of 33%.
- Management signaled higher FY 2027 costs and capital spending, including fleet replacement, mine development and studies for future growth.
- The company ended June with AUD 1.35 billion in cash and said it had moved into a net cash position.
Company Performance
Evolution Mining said FY 2026 built on several years of improving operating performance. The company described the year as one of strong execution, supported by high metal prices, disciplined spending and a diversified portfolio of gold and copper assets in Australia and Canada.
Gold production reached 715,000 ounces, while copper production totaled 66,000 tonnes. The company said all operations were net cash positive for the year and for the quarter, a sign of resilience across the portfolio. June-quarter cash flow reached AUD 374 million, even though the achieved gold price was 13% lower than in the March quarter.
For miners, cash flow and margins often matter more than reported profit because they show how well a company is converting metal prices into free cash. On that measure, Evolution Mining delivered a strong result. The company’s shares have returned nearly 14% over the past year, according to InvestingPro data, reflecting investor confidence in its cash-generating ability. InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 10 additional exclusive tips for Evolution Mining, along with comprehensive financial health scores and Fair Value estimates.
Financial Highlights
- Gold production: 715,000 ounces for FY 2026, in line with guidance.
- Copper production: 66,000 tonnes for FY 2026, slightly below guidance after weather disruption at Ernest Henry.
- All-in sustaining cost: AUD 1,717 per ounce for FY 2026, in line with guidance.
- June-quarter AISC: AUD 1,706 per ounce, down 23% from the March quarter.
- Group cash flow: AUD 1.4 billion for FY 2026, a record.
- June-quarter cash flow: AUD 374 million, despite a weaker gold price environment than the prior quarter.
- Mine cash flows: AUD 3.4 billion, also a record.
- Cash balance: AUD 1.35 billion at the end of June, after paying a record interim dividend of AUD 406 million.
- AISC margin: 71% in the June quarter, up from 67% in March.
- Group cash flow margin: 33% in the June quarter.
- Dividend yield: 5.53%, supported by 14 consecutive years of dividend payments according to InvestingPro data.
Earnings vs. Forecast
No EPS or revenue forecast was provided, so a direct beat-or-miss comparison is not available. For a mining company, however, production, costs and cash flow are often the key operating benchmarks.
On that basis, Evolution Mining met its main FY 2026 targets. It delivered the guided gold production of 715,000 ounces and the guided AISC of AUD 1,717 per ounce. Copper output was slightly below plan, but management said the shortfall was tied to the December weather event at Ernest Henry rather than a broader operational problem.
The June quarter also showed a sharp sequential improvement. AISC fell 23% from the March quarter, while cash flow remained strong even with a 13% lower achieved gold price. That suggests the company ended the year with better operating momentum than it had at the start of the quarter.
Market Reaction
Shares were under pressure after the update. Evolution Mining stock fell 3.65% to $11.35, compared with the previous close of $11.78. The move put the shares about 36.1% above their 52-week low of $6.96, but still about 36.1% below the 52-week high of $17.75.
The decline suggests investors were not discouraged by the strong FY 2026 cash flow, but were cautious about the outlook for FY 2027. Management flagged 4%-5% inflation in all-in sustaining costs, or about AUD 150-AUD 160 per ounce, along with higher sustaining capital and mine development spending. Ernest Henry is also expected to run below full capacity for a period as the company works through development catch-up.
No trading volume data was provided, so it is not possible to determine whether the move came with unusually heavy activity. The stock’s beta of 0.63 suggests it tends to be less volatile than the broader market, though InvestingPro notes that price movements can still be quite volatile. Evolution Mining is one of over 1,400 US equities covered by comprehensive Pro Research Reports, which transform complex financial data into clear, actionable intelligence for investors.
Outlook & Guidance
Management said formal FY 2027 guidance will be released with full-year results on Aug. 19. Even so, the company gave investors a clear preview of what to expect: higher costs, more capital spending and continued investment in growth projects.
Evolution Mining said inflation will lift AISC by 4%-5% in FY 2027, with diesel prices still elevated. It also expects sustaining capital to rise by AUD 50 million-AUD 60 million, mainly for fleet replacement and infrastructure. Mine development capital is set to increase by AUD 130 million-AUD 160 million, although management said that spending is tied to already approved projects and is largely a timing issue.
The company also plans to raise exploration spending to AUD 130 million-AUD 150 million, with about two-thirds directed to brownfields work and one-third to greenfields exploration. Key focus areas include Cowal, Red Lake, Mungari, Ernest Henry, Corella, Connors Arc and properties in Canada.
Among the main projects:
- Cowal: production is expected to hold up better than previously feared, with E46 ore due in FY 2027 and a second underground portal expected to improve productivity.
- Northparkes: E22 block cave ramp-up remains on schedule and on budget.
- Ernest Henry: development work will reduce hoisting capacity for 12 to 18 months, but the longer-term Bert project remains on track for ore delivery from FY 2029.
- Mount Rawdon: the mine is moving into closure and rehabilitation mode after the government deprioritized the pumped hydro project.
Executive Commentary
“FY 2026 built on the improved, consistent performance of the past couple of years,” said Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lawrie Conway. “We produced 715,000 ounces of gold and 66,000 tons of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 1,717 per ounce.”
Conway also pointed to the company’s cash generation. “We generated a record group cash flow for the year at just under AUD 1.4 billion, with AUD 374 million delivered during the June quarter,” he said. He added that the quarterly result came “against an achieved gold price that was 13% lower than the March quarter.”
Chief Operating Officer Matt O’Neill said the company’s response to the Ernest Henry rain event showed the strength of its operating team. “Essentially from the rain event, what we saw was that we had the lower levels where our development was flooded, not the production levels,” he said. “We’ve caught back up and we’ve dewatered those areas.”
Risks and Challenges
- Higher inflation: Management expects AISC to rise in FY 2027, which could pressure margins if metal prices soften.
- Ernest Henry development work: Hoisting capacity will run below normal for a period, which may reduce copper output.
- Capital intensity: Higher sustaining and development spending could limit near-term free cash flow.
- Mount Rawdon closure: The move into rehabilitation mode removes future production from the asset.
- Weather and operational disruptions: Rainfall affected Cowal and Ernest Henry in FY 2026, showing how weather can affect output.
Q&A
Analysts focused heavily on capital spending, production timing and the outlook for key mines.
Questions centered on why FY 2027 capital spending appears higher than earlier guidance, with management saying the increase comes from timing-related mine development, sustaining capital for fleet replacement and new study work. The company stressed that the mine development spending is tied to already approved projects, not new large-scale commitments.
At Cowal, analysts asked whether FY 2027 production could still reach 300,000 ounces. Management said that was achievable, helped by Stage H material, fewer mill shutdowns and better underground productivity. The second portal at Cowal is expected to improve trucking efficiency and ore routing later in the year.
Questions also focused on Ernest Henry, where management said the rain event affected development levels rather than production levels. The company said it is working to restore three concurrent operating levels for stable mining and is also looking for alternative ore sources near the plant.
On shareholder returns, management said the board will review dividend policy with full-year results in August. The company said it does not intend to build a large cash balance and wants to balance reinvestment, dividends and possible buybacks.
Full transcript – Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN) Q4 2026:
Conference Moderator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Evolution Mining Limited June 2026 quarter results. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thank you, Ashley, and good morning, everyone. I am joined on the call today by Matt O’Neill, our Chief Operating Officer, Fran Summerhayes, our Chief Financial Officer, and Peter O’Connor, our GM Investor Relations. Today, we released our June quarterly report on the ASX, and this will be the reference point for the call. The June quarter rounded out a great year for Evolution. FY 2026 saw us deliver into our group guidance, deliver record cash flows, move to a net cash position, and at the end of June, we are now fully unhedged. Our growth projects are on track and budget. We captured the benefits of the high metal prices while maintaining our discipline on costs and capital to be one of the lowest cost producers in the sector. We delivered the quarter and the year safely with our total recordable injury frequency of 5.9 remaining low.
FY 2026 built on the improved, consistent performance of the past couple of years. We produced 715,000 ounces of gold and 66,000 tons of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 1,717 per ounce. Combined production equates to around 910,000 to 920,000 gold equivalent ounces. We achieved group gold all-in sustaining cost and capital guidance for the year. The all-in sustaining cost was within the improved guidance issued during the year and below the low end of our original guidance. Our copper production was slightly below guidance due to the weather event in December at Ernest Henry. However, when you look at Ernest Henry’s performance in the June quarter, its best for the year, including record cash flow, it shows the true quality of this operation.
The operational performance for the year included another good quarter in June, where we produced 180,000 ounces of gold and 19,000 tons of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 1,706 per ounce, which is an improvement of 23% on the March quarter. We generated a record group cash flow for the year at just under AUD 1.4 billion, with AUD 374 million delivered during the June quarter. The quarterly cash flow was generated against an achieved gold price that was 13% lower than the March quarter. The FY 2026 group cash flow was on the back of record mine cash flows of AUD 3.4 billion and AUD 2.1 billion of operating and net mine cash flows, respectively. All operations were net cash positive for the year and the quarter. Looking at our cash flow on a margin basis is where you do see the quality of the portfolio.
The chart on page one of the report clearly shows our high margins with our all-in sustaining cost margin at 71% and our group cash flow margin at 33%. These were achieved at a gold price slightly above the current spot price. For the year, this equates to a group cash flow of around AUD 2,000 per ounce, which is extremely healthy margin considering this is after investing in our high return organic growth projects. Even more important is that these margins are sustainable given our group reserve life of 15 years. Another benefit the margin chart shows is the diversification of metal. copper comprises approximately 22% of our revenue. Our all-in sustaining cost margin improved from 67%-71% between the March and June quarters.
Quarter-on-quarter, the gold price achieved was 13% lower, while the achieved copper price was 3% higher and Ernest Henry was back to full production. This product mix definitely does help smooth our margin profile. Our cash balance at the end of June was AUD 1.35 billion after paying our record interim dividend of AUD 406 million during the quarter. We have no debt repayments due until FY 2029. We head into FY 2027 as an unhedged producer, having delivered the last of our hedged production during the June quarter. As mentioned earlier, all projects remain on schedule and budget. The Cowal Open Pit Continuation project sees mining advancing in the main open pits and work about to commence on the southern protection bund. We’ll be ramping up development of the E22 block cave at Northparkes and Bert at Ernest Henry.
We will release our FY 2027 guidance with our full-year results on 19 August. As we finalize our plans, we can provide some information on the FY 2027 outlook. No material changes to production capacity are planned other than the previously announced cessation of production at Mount Rawdon. Inflation remains elevated, we are expecting a 4%-5% impact on our FY 2027 all-in sustaining cost equal to about AUD 150-AUD 160 per ounce. With all operations having organic growth options and a group mine life of 15 years, we want to ensure long-term sustained operational reliability. To achieve this, now is the right time to allocate additional investment in fleet replacement and infrastructure. Our sustaining capital investment is likely to be AUD 50 million-AUD 60 million above FY 2026. This capital was not in our previous outlook range, we expect to invest at this rate for the next few years.
Mine development will ramp up in FY 2027 to support additional ore delivery from FY 2029. The development will mainly be at Northparkes, Cowal, and Ernest Henry as mentioned earlier. Major mine development is expected to be AUD 130 million-AUD 160 million above the FY 2026 level. However, this is timing related since this capital is within the original project budgets. Having finished FY 2026 in a solid high-margin position, we’re still on track to remain one of the lowest cost producers in the sector with good cost and capital discipline that will reward our shareholders through dividends in addition to the high returns to be generated from our organic growth pipeline. With that, I’ll now hand over to Matt to take us through the operational performance.
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thanks, Lawrie. As already mentioned, the June quarter was another good quarter, resulting in us achieving full-year guidance for gold, oil, and sustaining cost and capital investment. Whilst our copper production was just below guidance, I am proud of the performance of the Ernest Henry operation, which is our major driver for copper. Over the June quarter, the operation delivered record operating cash flows and its highest quarterly production of copper for the year. All of this while completing recovery activities and dewatering the mine after the December rain event. Perhaps the aspect of this work that I am most pleased with is that all of this was done without a single recordable incident, which is a testament to the team at Ernest Henry and the way they go about their work.
Pleasingly, across all our portfolio, our safety performance remains in a healthy position, thanks to the tireless efforts of everyone in the business, and we will continue to maintain a keen focus in this area. At Cowal, we delivered record operating and net mine cash flows of over AUD 1.2 billion and AUD 852 million for the financial year. Gold production for the quarter reflected an increased volume of stockpiled ore processed due to higher than forecast rainfall and an additional mill shutdown, which will partially reduce shutdown time in the next financial year. During the quarter, we successfully completed mining E42 Stage H, commenced the next cutback for E42, and progressed the new E46 pit ahead of plan. Over the next 18 months, we will see minor impacts at Cowal from the transition in E42 to Stage I through an increased volume of stockpiled ore processed.
Development of the second underground portal at Cowal is on track for completion by the start of the second half of the next financial year. The completion of this portal will create opportunity for further productivity improvements from the underground mine. Red Lake and Northparkes had solid quarters and strong fiscal years, consistently delivering in line with plan with both generating record operating and net mine cash flows over the year. At Northparkes, the organic growth projects progressed well, and we completed our planned maintenance shutdown in the processing plant. The highlight for Red Lake has been its consistent performance and cost control over the last few years. Red Lake has now produced greater than 30,000 ounces and been net cash positive for the past five quarters.
It generated AUD 286 million of net cash flow for the year, meaning it delivered around a 20% payback of total capital invested to date in one year. Mungari finished the financial year with record gold output on the back of the successful ramp-up of the mill. The key drivers for the June quarter’s performance were the planned mill shutdown and the continued power outages in the region. Over the quarter, we also saw costs impacted by diesel increases, an ore sorting trial, and an increase in sustaining capital with the delivery of replacement mobile fleet. In wrapping up the operational performance of FY 2026, we delivered to guidance on our key metrics, which allowed us to generate record cash flows on the back of strong gold and copper markets. Looking forward to the FY 2027, we look to continue the theme of reliably delivering to plan.
I’ll now hand back to Ashley so she can open the line for questions.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star 2. If you’re on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question today comes from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Kate McCutcheon, Analyst, Bank of America: Hi, good morning, Lawrie. We’ve got some FY 2027 CapEx expectations, and on my maths, it will be above the top end of that AUD 1.1 range you gave us earlier, excluding exploration, even if I stripped out that sustaining CapEx. Can you just talk me through that delta and spend what’s being pulled forward? That would be great.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yes, sure. Kate, thank you. I’ll start with the mine development. That capital next year, as I said, up to AUD 160, is actually the development that’s needed for us to get to the ore in FY 2029 for those projects at Cowal, Northparkes, and Ernest Henry. That is timing in terms of it spent next year so that we get the ore. That’s within that AUD 1-AUD 1.1 capital over the next three years. That’s timing. If I look at sustaining capital, the AUD 50-AUD 60 that we’ve talked about, that is new. In terms of the studies capital that we’re looking at for projects for beyond FY 2030, that is also new. That’s the two main ones that come into the capital guidance range for next year when we finalize it
Kate McCutcheon, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay, cool. You called out organic growth options in your FY27 LOM with that AUD 70 million to AUD 90 million that you’re going to stand. What are those studies? Is there anything new and, I guess, exciting that we’re not familiar with or we might not be thinking about?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: I think if we look at it, as we know with Cowal, as we advance through in the underground drilling results that we’re seeing there, the work that we’re doing between E41 and E42, therefore it gives us an option to look at plant capacity at Cowal. There’s other options at Ernest Henry around making sure we can keep filling that mill. We’re certainly looking at some upside potential at Mungari based on the drilling results we’re seeing over there in terms of the mix of underground and open pit material. Across the entire portfolio, where Nancy and the team are looking at is how can we get better recoveries than what we’re currently achieving. There’s a mix of all of those sorts of projects that we’re looking at.
Kate McCutcheon, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay, that makes sense. Thanks, Lawrie.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Jonathan Sharp with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Sharp, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Morning, Lawrie and team, congratulations on the year. My first question, Ernest Henry. Hoisting is expected to be around 10% below capacity next year or this year as you catch up in development. Can you quantify the likely impact on gold and copper production, explain whether it’s concentrated in the first half, and maybe confirm when you expect to return to full capacity?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: I’ll get Matt to talk through what we’re doing there operationally. I think if you look at it year-on-year, given that we were out for a quarter in FY 2026, and we’re planning to operate for the full quarters this year, that’s what Matt’s told me, then you’d probably see it more than an offset there. Do you want to talk about the development focus, Matt?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Essentially from the rain event, what we saw was that we had the lower levels where our development was flooded, not the production levels. We’ve caught back up and we’ve dewatered those areas. We now need to focus in on the development to get ourselves in front on the next few levels. The mining method at Ernest Henry is a sub-level cave. What we want to get back into is having 3 levels operating concurrently. With the restrictions we had after the rain event, we are running at 2, and we want to get our development ahead and our levels developed out in front. There’ll be some more development activities over at least the next 12 or 18 months, which will impact what comes through the hoist. We will hoist the waste, but it obviously doesn’t have a lot of grade in it.
The hoist is fine. It’s just that some of the product coming out of it won’t have the gold or the copper that we wanted. You’ll see that, like I said, for probably about 18 months before we get back to normal run rates from there.
Jonathan Sharp, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Okay, thanks for that. That explains it. Just second question on Cowal. You managed the quarter’s rainfall. I saw there was quite a bit of rainfall in May with stockpile processing and pulled a December 2026 shutdown forward. How does that leave FY 2027 first half Cowal running? Is it above underlying rate? Maybe just how much stockpile material is left if there’s another wet weather event?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah. In terms of the impact on 2027, for one event, probably helped us a little bit in the first quarter in that we’ve still got some of stage H left to go through the mill. We’ve taken it all out of the pit, but it’s still sitting in front of the mill. In terms of the stockpiles, our original plan for the next 18 months or so at Cowal, while we do the cutback on E42, was to start processing stockpiles or ore stockpiles. You’re not going to see a material impact as a result of what we talked about with the rain in the June quarter. Everything will still continue to plan as is.
Jonathan Sharp, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Yeah, of course. That makes sense. Okay, I’ll hand on.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Levi Spry with UBS. Please go ahead.
Levi Spry, Analyst, UBS: Hi. Morning, Lawrie and Matt. Thanks for your time. Following on from that, at Cowal for next year, can you talk a little bit more to the grade profile and how we should think about production levels? Then, I guess, this second decline, how we should think about what are the quantum of the sort of productivity benefits of having two accesses to underground from 2028 onwards, I guess?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yep. Yeah, I’ll cover that one. Yeah. In terms of the grade profile, you will see the grade come off a little. In terms of timing quarter-on-quarter, you’ll still see the major shuts probably being the key driver. The production or productivity increase that we’re wanting from the second portal, the Regal portal, we’re expecting to see that start to come through in the final quarter of the financial year. We’re targeting a little bit of an increase in quarter four on the basis of really the trucking and the way that we’re doing it. We’re currently limited by the trucking through that single portal, that second portal will allow us to reroute the trucks and the way that we take the ore out of the mine. We’re looking for a reasonable improvement out of that.
Again, remembering the underground ore is sort of 2.4, 2.5, it’s not the whole feed for the mine.
Levi Spry, Analyst, UBS: Yeah. Okay.
That answer your question? Yeah.
Yeah. Just in terms of how we should think about productivity levels longer term? Is there a % extra tons you can get out because of-
Two entries?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: You sound like Lawrie. Yeah, there is. Yes, in terms of what we would put forward, we’re wanting to increase on what we’ve got today. In terms of what our target is, we’re working through that. Once we’ve modeled it, we want to see how it works in reality.
Levi Spry, Analyst, UBS: Okay, thanks. Thanks for the compliment. Just for FY 2027 guidance overall, thanks for the extra detail. I guess the year has started, so can you talk to what are the elements that maybe you’re still sharpening the pencil on? Is it around costs or is it certain parts of the short-term mine plan?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Well, firstly, Levi, we normally put it out in August. What we’ve got to do is close out FY 2026 and one of them is to see where each of the, particularly the growth projects, have finished and then now their updated schedule for FY 2027. That’s one of them. Two, as Matt talked about with Cowal in particular, we had to do the shut. We finished in Stage H. It’s not all through, so just finalizing what the full year looks like there. They’re all of the things, but we do normally issue our guidance in August.
Levi Spry, Analyst, UBS: Yep, no worries. Thank you. Thanks for your time.
Conference Moderator: The next question comes from David Radclyffe with Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.
David Radclyffe, Analyst, Global Mining Research: Hi, good morning, Lawrie and Martin team. Just maybe a first question follow-up to Levi’s one, coming back to Cowal and the underground there. If you annualize the rate from the last quarter, which was the strongest I think you’ve achieved, you’re closer to 2.8 million tonnes, and I thought the target was at sort of 2.4, 2.5. Was this just everything going right for the quarter, or is this a better indication of what we expect the rate to be going forward and then with upside with obviously the new portal, et cetera?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Dave, I thank you and Levi for asking a good question. It was a good finish for the underground, but maybe you want to talk through.
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: 2.4 is where we were targeted at, and now we’re looking at how we improve above that.
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: It is. It was a really good quarter. We had a transition in the mining contract on site, we had a couple of extra resources around to do some of that work. That said, you’ll get the normal technical answer of sequencing. We are targeting somewhere around trying to maintain that rate if that’s what we’re We want to at least do that out of the Regal portal. We will still see regular variances with sequencing as we go, depending on where we are with the stopes. The productivity uplift that you’re talking about there, that’s a reasonable target.
David Radclyffe, Analyst, Global Mining Research: Okay, cool. Maybe if I can focus a follow-up, I guess, coming back to Ernest Henry, because I don’t think we quite have answered that. It sounds like the impact of the rain was worse than initially thought. If we think of your guidance, I think you said 4,000-5,000 tonne impact. If there’s an impact into this year, that’s obviously more than that. Am I right in assuming there’s no stockpiles left, so there’s no way to make that back? Just on that, you have talked in the past about trying to secure potentially other ore sources or coal trading opportunities ahead of Bert coming in in 2029. Has there been any progress made on those?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: I’ll answer the second part first, Dave, and then hand to Matt just to clarify a bit further on Ernest Henry. Kieran and the team are continuing to look. There are operators out there that are looking for material to come through the plant, and I do think 12 months we’ll be able to find some alternative ore sources there. The Corella project, we’ve started drilling up there. Whilst it may not be in the next sort of 18 months, 2 years, it is something that we’ve already identified in addition to Bert to going above the current mining and processing rates of the existing cave. Just on the weather event, it wasn’t that it was worse than we’d predicted.
What we’d identified was that we knew we would be out for most of March, and to get back into production, we needed to see what the impact was on the development levels, which weren’t going to impact on 2026. So we knew there was because that’s where all the water flowed. Matt and the team needed to get down there and get all of that water out and see what the impact is. Do you want to then talk about-
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: the development?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Essentially that is the case. Now that we’ve dewatered the areas we’ve got open, we’ve had to do some repairs on the infrastructure down there. We’ve also had to do some modifications on the ventilation circuits. Those are sort of key technical things. When I talk about the development of the mine, those are the things that I’m talking to. To get ourselves back into that 3 levels and another level sitting in front of us, that’s the focus. When you’ve got those, the operation is quite stable, consistent, and reliable. I don’t want us to not focus on that and put ourselves into a sort of hand-to-mouth scenario. That’s really the work. Like I said, the 18 months is to open up the extra levels and finalize the ventilation circuit to get the operation up and running in 2026.
We did use some ventilation circuit capacity that we had planned for the future. We’re now replacing some of that as well. Those activities weren’t firmed up, if you like, in 2026. Once we dewatered, got down, and had a look at what it all looked like, that’s sort of where we’ve ended up landing with the plan.
David Radclyffe, Analyst, Global Mining Research: Okay, perfect. Thanks. I’ll pass it on.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hugo Nicolaci, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Morning, Lawrie, Matt, and team. Look, firstly, following on from Cowal, expectations into next year had obviously been falling just as you were moving more to stockpile material. From what you’ve highlighted today, your underground productivity is higher, the satellite pits are progressing well. You’ve still got stage 8 stock sitting there, and you now have one less shut to do in the year. Is 300,000 ounces out of that asset achievable again for FY27?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Here we go. This is why we haven’t finished getting board approval on the budget. You’re joining the line of asking Matt good questions. Look, it’s fair to say, we’d originally, at the halfway mark, had predicted that it was going to be a 10% lower production, 27 over 26. As Matt said, we’ve got some of the stage H material that sort of didn’t come out until the back end of the June quarter that was previously planned to come into this year. That shut that we decided to do in April to reduce. The two major shuts in the September and March quarters will still happen. This was a smaller shut that was planned in December. We get some benefit there, and we are looking at getting some upside in the underground.
I think when you look at the guidance, when we do finalize the plan, it won’t be that 10% lower than what we’ve achieved in 26. We’re just working through that now.
Hugo Nicolaci, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Got it. Thanks for that, Lawrie. Sorry to add to the preempting guidance questions. Secondly, more of a strategic one on Rawdon. Look, with the hydro project no longer being prioritized by the government, what do you do with that asset from here? I mean, if there’s a mill, there’s gold in the ground, do you sell it to someone else, let them do the cut back and get that liability off your books?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah, look, that was a little bit disappointing in terms of where that project ended. As we’ve sort of said, it’s not going to have a material impact on our plan for Rawdon. We move to closure and rehabilitation mode now. We do look at those options knowing, as you’ve said, there’s a mill there. There is some gold in the ground and there’s a large pit that’s already been developed. Our focus in the next six months is on getting into that closure rehab mode.
Hugo Nicolaci, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Are there any costs sort of associated in that closure rehab mode to be aware of for 27?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah, look, that’s another one that we are finalizing right now, and we’ll let you know in August. We’ve previously sort of, it’s probably around AUD 100 million closure and rehab estimate. We’ll update that as well, it won’t be as material amount of money spent this year compared to what we’re doing over the next sort of five to 10 years.
Hugo Nicolaci, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Great. Thanks a lot, Don.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Daniel Morgan, Analyst, Barrenjoey: Hey, Lawrie and team, another question for Cowal. It sounds like you’re pitching back, excuse me, pitching back to a growth agenda in a number of areas. At Cowal, does the extra CapEx, does that get us some satellite open-pit ore happening earlier? Are we investing in more fleet, more material movement so that we get better access to that in time? When is the first ore from the OPC project? Not stage 1, when do we get that? Thank you.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah. Effectively, some of the new fleet arrived towards the back end of 2026. The balance will be in the first half of 2027, which allows us to accelerate that mine development. As we’ve sort of got in the quarterly today, we are into E46. We’re mining there, we do expect to get ore out of E46 in FY27. We don’t expect to get any ore out of stage 1. As that fleet comes in, we can increase that mining rate, in both those areas. We won’t be doing anything in E41, because we’ve got to do the southern protection bund work first, and that’ll be through all of FY27.
Daniel Morgan, Analyst, Barrenjoey: Okay. Just back to the other portal opening up at the Cowal underground mining. Does this provide the optionality for future consideration of a parallel underground mine, or do you think a third portal might be necessary to contemplate that? What’s the view there?
Matt O’Neill, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Dan, it’s Matt. It provides the optionality for a lot of those things, depending on how the drilling goes. At the moment, we’re hopeful, optimistic in that area. The key one for the short term we talked about is productivity, but it does all of the things you just mentioned as well.
Daniel Morgan, Analyst, Barrenjoey: Lawrie, is it fair to say, I mean, it’s clear you’ve outlined a little bit more CapEx than the market was expecting today, but basically, you haven’t outlined, or given us the benefits that I presume you will in future periods when you look at giving us information on what these projects are, the metrics behind them, what the returns look like. Basically, we’ve got extra CapEx, but not the benefits yet. Is that a fair assessment of what you’ve sort of announced today?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yes and no, Dan. I think if I look at it, any of the projects that we approve, we certainly put out what the economics are and what returns we’re going to get out of those projects. If I look at it, the up to AUD 160 in the mine development, which is timing, we’ve already put out there that with E22, Bert and E42 and the open-pit continuation, sort of what we get out of those. That is timing. When we look at the other studies work, that is really now based on each of the assets have got life extensions and growth options. As we go through those studies, and we saw them with the coarse particle, you’ve got the regrind circuit that we’re looking at Northparkes. We’ve got Go above the 8.8 million tonnes at Cowal.
As we finish those things, we’ll certainly let the market know. On the sustaining side, each of these assets, we’ve got 10, 20, 30 year mine lives already that they’ve been operating at. We do need to look at the fleet and the infrastructure, and that’s the right time to put that capital back into the business. That’s sort of where we’re at. Does that answer your question?
Daniel Morgan, Analyst, Barrenjoey: Yeah. It mostly does. It just strikes me that there’s a lot of studies happening and things, and you’re not yet ready on all of those to give the returns on all of them. I appreciate we’ve got some of them. Just putting in more CapEx into market forecasts is probably not the right answer. It sounds like there’s projects you’re going to bring on.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah. Dan, as I say, the up to AUD 160 in the mine development is already in those project budgets.
The study money in FY27 is sort of in that concept pre-phase. We haven’t got any production, and it’s not that that money is going to be spent every year in the next five years. It’s the studies that we’ve identified to be done through FY27.
Daniel Morgan, Analyst, Barrenjoey: Yep. Loud and clear. Thank you, Lawrie.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Adam Baker, Analyst, Macquarie: Hi, Lawrie and team. Thanks for taking my question. Just going back to the AISC piece. You’ve left a few, I guess, hints as to what CapEx guidance and what sustaining guidance will look like next year. You called out the inflation at 45%, being about AUD 150 to AUD 160 an ounce higher. You’ve also called out sustaining capital increase about AUD 50 million to AUD 60 million. By my calcs, that’s about AUD 80 an ounce. Looking at the inflation plus the sustaining CapEx, by my back of the envelope calcs, I’m getting to about AUD 1,950. Does that sound about right, looking into next year? How do I weigh in there?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Is that your way, Adam, of asking me to give you the guidance without giving you the guidance? I could say I can’t confirm or deny, I think, your maths is right. We’re very clear in terms of what we’re seeing in terms of inflationary impact and cost escalation. We’re pretty clear that we’ve made a decision to take to the board to increase our sustaining capital, given the age of the equipment. Those two combined does lift it by a couple of hundred AUD an ounce.
Adam Baker, Analyst, Macquarie: Yeah. Perfect. You also called out some increase in exploration. I think you’re getting up to AUD 130 million to AUD 150 million, in FY 2027, which is perfectly reasonable given the strong growth pipeline that you’ve got. Just wondering if you could give us a bit more color on, I guess, what’s the breakdown between brownfields and greenfields exploration? Where’s the primary focus here? Is this on Northparkes, E44, et cetera? How much are you spending it to be time spread in British Columbia, et cetera? Just any color would be appreciated. Thank you.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah, look, I think if you’re breaking it down, a lot of the brownfields is going to be at Mungari, Red Lake, Cowal. That’s the primary focus of where most of the dollars. If you’re looking into the greenfields, it’s going to be in and around Ernest Henry and the Corella project and the Connors Arc, and the like. In terms of the greenfields in Canada, it’s certainly going to be in B.C. and some in Ontario. If I looked at it, and I haven’t got it right in front of me, you’re probably talking about a third of it’s going to be in the greenfields and the balance is going to be at the brownfields and regional brownfields, right next to the operations. We’ll give all of that.
It was a good ask of trying to get the guidance, but we’ll give that next month.
Adam Baker, Analyst, Macquarie: Good one. Look forward to it. Thanks.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Daniel Roden with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Daniel Roden, Analyst, Jefferies: G’day, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Apologies in advance. I was going to ask another one on the guidance. I just wanted to clarify on that 4%-5% on in sustaining cost inflation. On a net basis, you’ve talked about a bit of a production rollback, particularly at Ernest Henry and Cowal. Does that 4%-5% inflation include any impacts from production changes that you would foresee in FY 2027, or is it purely on a like-for-like net cash cost basis?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Dan, it is based on where we see production ranging in FY 2027 to come up with the 150-160.
Daniel Roden, Analyst, Jefferies: No, perfect. Does that include, I guess, any changes in expectations for cost relief on diesel?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: No. I don’t think anyone can work out what the price is going to be based on the daily movements in Iran. We’ve allowed for diesel to be elevated above what it was pre-February in our plans for FY 2027.
Daniel Roden, Analyst, Jefferies: Yep. No, perfect. Thank you very much.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: You can see in our quarterly report in the appendix that from the half year to the full year, our diesel cost went from being 2%. That’s been the impact, and that is part of the 4%-5% that we’ve allowed for.
Daniel Roden, Analyst, Jefferies: Yep. No, understood. Thanks, guys, and congrats on the quarter. I’ll hand it over. Thanks.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thanks, Dan.
Conference Moderator: Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman with MST Financial. Please go ahead.
Matthew Frydman, Analyst, MST Financial: Sure. Thanks. Morning, Lawrie and team. Hopefully a relatively quick one. AUD 1.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet, heading into the FY 2026 result and obviously a full-year dividend. Is there anything that we need to be thinking about, I guess, in terms of shareholder returns? What’s the right level of cash to keep on the balance sheet going forward? Thanks.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thanks, Matt. I think we’ve always said we’re not going to build up a huge cash balance on the books. We’ll look at our dividend policy next month with the full-year results with the board, and we expect to update that and continue on our commitment to increase returns to shareholders. I think, what the cash balance is providing and no debt repayments till FY 2029, is allowing us to look at the business and then that sustaining capital reinvestment, the studies on growth beyond FY 2030. That’s, I think, an appropriate allocation of capital while still making sure that our shareholders get an increase in returns, and that’s what we’d always targeted to get back to that net cash, build up a decent cash balance, and then balance it between reinvestment in the business and returning to our shareholders. So we’ll update next month with the dividend policy review.
Matthew Frydman, Analyst, MST Financial: Yeah. Got it. Thanks, Lawrie. I guess an extension to that, obviously your cash generation, pretty comfortably covering your growth optionality. How do you think about the attractiveness of buybacks, I guess, relative to or as another form of reinvesting in the business and the growth options that you’ve got? Yeah, I guess how attractive is that in the scheme of things? Then I guess secondly, how does that compare to external opportunities across the sector? Obviously, you’ve got peers that are, I guess, making acquisitions externally rather than investing that capital within their own businesses. Yeah, how do you, I guess, weigh that up given the sector’s had a little bit of a pullback and you’ve got a pretty healthy balance sheet position to maybe make the most of that? Thanks.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Buybacks, they’re part of the equation when you’re looking at returns for shareholders. One of the things that I’ve said in the last few months, it’s the most amount of feedback we’ve got from shareholders in terms of what to do with our money and how to get it back to the shareholders. I have no doubt whatever Fran recommends will not please every single shareholder, but I’m very confident that she’s going to come up with something that will make sure that we increase our returns to them, and we do it in an appropriate manner. In terms of external opportunities, Kieran and the team continue to look. There’s not a lot of opportunities out there right now that fit our portfolio.
It’s certainly yes, with where our cash balance is, where the market is with the metal prices coming off the highs from the first half, it does provide those opportunities, but at the moment, he hasn’t come up with anything.
Matthew Frydman, Analyst, MST Financial: Got it. Thanks, Lawrie.
Conference Moderator: Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Belinda Humphries with iQ Industry Queensland. Please go ahead.
Belinda Humphries, Analyst, iQ Industry Queensland: Hi. Thank you for taking my call. I know Mount Rawdon was covered a little before. I’m just wondering if going into a pumped hydro project with another private party may be among the options that you would still be looking at.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thanks, Belinda. If it was something that could keep Jake occupied for three years, I’d certainly be open to it. I think our focus was always on this pathway with the Queensland Government, given the way that they are set up, where they need to own at least 50% of any of these renewable energy projects. With that decision, our focus has turned to what do we do with this asset from a goldmine perspective.
Belinda Humphries, Analyst, iQ Industry Queensland: Just one more question. You were talking about the importance of Corella as a potential future source for Ernest Henry. Can you tell us a little more about that project and-
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yeah. We picked up a large parcel of tenements from Rio Tinto last year, and we basically are now looking at what are the good targets that we can drill out that may provide us with an opportunity to process that material through the Ernest Henry plant. They’re all within that trucking distance, within 50 k’s of the process plant. That’s where that land is, just outside of Ernest Henry.
Belinda Humphries, Analyst, iQ Industry Queensland: Thank you. Any activity going on out there at the moment?
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Yes, we’ve commenced drilling there.
Belinda Humphries, Analyst, iQ Industry Queensland: Thank you.
Conference Moderator: Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now hand back to Lawrie Conway for closing remarks.
Lawrie Conway, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Mining Limited: Thank you, Ashley. I want to reiterate a couple of points in closing out the call. We started FY 2026 wanting to continue to be consistent and reliable in our delivery and making sure that we bank the benefits of the high metal prices. We’ve delivered to our group guidance and taking full advantage of the current metal price environment, and we’ve set the business up to continue that in FY 2027. Our projects are all on schedule and budget, and we’ve got a lot of other options for further growth. Balance sheet’s very flexible and going to improve further as we go into 2027. I look forward to updating you next month with our full year results and guidance and what we plan to do with our dividend policy. Thank you for your time today.
Conference Moderator: That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
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