Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s latest report shows major copper producers missed or beat revised 2025 targets by wide margins, exposing a critical blind spot in supply forecasts.
The firm’s analysis separates production guidance from actual output, highlighting which companies delivered on expectations and which fell short.
CMOC (formerly China Molybdenum) led the group, exceeding its target by 111,000 tonnes after a strong operational year. In contrast, Zijin Mining Group undershot guidance by 65,000 tonnes, weighed down by delays at its Julong expansion and weaker African output.
“Most copper supply models are built on guidance figures, but guidance doesn’t equal production,” Benchmark Copper analysts said, underscoring the gap between expectations and reality.
The divergence between stated targets and delivered output remains an overlooked but consequential factor in forecasting the copper market, Benchmark said.