Tokyo’s consumer price index is set to accelerate in June for the first time in eight months, driven by higher energy costs and lingering supply concerns tied to Middle East tensions following the US-Iran conflict.
The closely watched core measure, which strips out fresh food, is forecast to rise 1.6% on the year in June, up from 1.3% in May, which had been the weakest reading since March 2022. Core inflation has fallen sharply from a 3.6% gain recorded in May 2025. The broader CPI is tipped to rise 1.7%, compared with 1.4% in May and the highest since December’s 2.0% print. The core-core gauge, which also excludes energy, is seen climbing to 1.8% from 1.6%.
Easing food inflation is providing some relief, but rising global commodity prices are beginning to filter through, particularly in naphtha, oil products and chemicals. Government support measures, including a cap on retail gasoline prices near 170 yen per litre and a summer waiver of Tokyo water charges, are expected to cushion the upside but are unlikely to fully offset higher import costs.
Tokyo area inflation data:
- National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.
- Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPI
- It measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan area
- Its considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hub
- Historically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example
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Not a lot else on the data agenda for Friday: