Australia have lost only 12 points out of the 96 on offer for them so far this WTC cycle. However, they have 14 Tests to go, the most among all nine teams. That includes five Tests in India early next year, a country where they have only won two of their last 12 Tests. India’s home form has nosedived in the last couple of years, but Australia will still want to seal their qualification chances before the start of that series, especially with six home Tests coming up against Bangladesh and New Zealand. To end up with 60% score, they need 75 more points, which converts into six wins and a draw. If they manage eight wins and six losses, they’ll finish with 68.18%.
To get to 60%, South Africa need 65 more points, which they can get with five wins and a couple of draws. Six wins and four losses in their remaining matches will take them to 64.28%, while a 7-3 output will mean 71.43, and near-certain qualification.
However, India’s recent home form has been anything but convincing, with 3-0 and 2-0 series defeats against New Zealand and South Africa. They’ll have to do much better against Australia to give themselves any chance of qualifying for their third WTC final. However, before that, India also have to overcome the challenges of away series in Sri Lanka and New Zealand.
In the last cycle, the finalists finished with 69.44 (South Africa) and 67.54% (Australia). Seven wins and two losses will take India to 62.96%, while eight wins and a loss will see them finish on 68.52%, assuming they aren’t docked any penalty points. Thus, India have very little margin for error through the rest of their WTC campaign.
As if a 4-8 win-loss record wasn’t bad enough, England have also been horribly tardy with over-rates in this WTC cycle, being docked 14 points so far. That means 52 points from four wins and a draw has been reduced to 38. Even if they win each of their eight remaining Tests without losing further penalty points, they’ll only finish on 53.17%, which is highly unlikely to be enough for a spot in the final.
With two wins and four losses, Pakistan have had a poor campaign so far, further compounded by eight penalty points. If they win all seven remaining Tests, they’ll finish on 64.1%. Six wins and a draw will leave them on 58.97, while six wins and a loss will drop the percentage further to 56.41.
With just two Tests remaining, the maximum that West Indies can finish on is 32.14%.