This suggests financial incentives alone cannot overcome perceived social, economic and cultural obstacles to parenthood. The broader trend remains declining fertility, with only 31,100 registered births in 2025 compared with official predictions that they could rise from about 32,500 in 2022 to around 39,000 a year. Registered births in the first two months of 2026 were down 21 per cent year on year.
Surveys of young people are revealing. One survey involving 1,100 people aged 13 to 29, released last year by the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups, found that only 38 per cent expressed interest in having children, while 31 per cent said they did not want any at all. Many cite financial insecurity, fears of job instability in an era of AI disruption and the costs of education as reasons. Others point to lifestyle trade-offs, such as travel, leisure and personal freedom. Federation supervisor Christa Cheung Shuk-fung observed that parenthood appeared to be increasingly perceived as stress and sacrifice rather than joy. Many concerns reflected uncertainty about the future voiced by one respondent. “I can afford two trips to Japan a year and can go out every Friday night. Why should I give that up for a future that feels so uncertain?”
That need not mean the scheme should be scrapped outright, but while the bonus might help with expenses, it cannot address structural issues. Kindergarten closures amid falling enrolments highlight the urgency of a broader rethink. Financial recognition of the burdens of child-raising is a start, but an in-depth review of the baby-bonus scheme should be just the first step towards tackling systemic pressures that discourage family formation. The review lining up with the city’s development along with the country’s new five-year plan is a timely opportunity to consider the issue.