The MOU the U.S. and Iran signed on June 15 appeared to bring the regional countries together in a new way, according to Ratney. “At a certain point, they all just wanted the oil and gas moving, having concluded that the various war goals weren’t going to materialize,” he said.
But now, as the region tilts further toward all-out war, mistrust remains high, Minor said.
“Each country is afraid that the other country is funneling cash to Tehran not to hit them, and that it could come at the expense of their neighbors,” she said. Reuters reported in June that the UAE planned to release billions of dollars to Iran. Abu Dhabi denied it.
And as Qatar has floated a ceasefire to cool the atmosphere, Kuwait and Bahrain reportedly hit targets in Iran. “There’s no unity in the GCC. The best you could hope for is coordination,” said Nate Swanson, who negotiated with Iran on behalf of the Biden and Trump administrations.
Further complicating the picture is a split in the U.S. over how to interact with countries in the region, according to Matthew Kroenig, who advised the Pentagon on global defense strategy in the first Trump administration.
“The White House itself does value the relationships with the Gulf including Saudi, the UAE. They were proud of the Abraham Accords and criticized the Biden administration for being too tough against the Saudis,” he said. On the other hand, the Pentagon was more profoundly against getting into a forever war. By their logic, “cutting our losses and letting countries in the region deal with it would not be a bad outcome.”
The Pentagon called the characterization “false,” while the White House said the administration “falls in line” to carry out Trump’s decisions.
If Gulf countries do manage to unite, it would largely be to avoid being picked off by Iran one by one — but there could also be a shared disappointment in the Trump administration, said Douglas Silliman, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait.