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Middle East
Weekend Peace Talks Collapse, President Trump Escalates
What Happened
Notable events in the US-Israel Iran war over the past week:
- A two-week ceasefire was reached between Iran and the United States, right as President Trump’s latest ultimatum was set to expire on April 7. The deal established a framework for comprehensive peace talks, which were held in Pakistan over the weekend. The 10-point plan presented by Iran for the basis of the talks includes sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes.
- The ceasefire was put in peril by a devastating wave of Israeli airstrikes on Beirut mere hours after the deal was announced. At issue was whether or not the Iran-US ceasefire applied to Lebanon. Pakistan’s original announcement of the agreement stated explicitly that it did (and Islamabad has since re-iterated the point); Israeli and US officials maintained that it did not. Under increasing diplomatic pressure, Prime Minister Netanyahu called for direct (and separate) ceasefire talks with the government of Lebanon on April 9, though strikes have continued since then.
- The status of the Strait of Hormuz was central to this week’s events. The ceasefire included a provision for the temporary re-opening of the Strait for two weeks, albeit at a cost, with the regime intending to collect tolls in cryptocurrency. However, the dispute over Lebanon’s status caused Iran to re-impose its original blockade.
- On April 9, President Trump explicitly warned the Iranians against charging fees for traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
- China has supplied shoulder-fired missiles to Iran amid the present conflict, as per reporting from the New York Times on April 11, citing US intelligence sources. The revelation comes after earlier reports that Russia has provided satellite data to the Iranian military.
- The US military announced on April 11 that two destroyers had transited the Strait of Hormuz in a mine-clearing mission. This would have been when the weekend peace talks were either pending or ongoing; the passage was denied by an Iranian military source cited by the New York Times.
- Weekend talks in Pakistan failed to produce any agreement and US Vice President JD Vance departed after 21 hours of negotiations.
- President Trump declared that the US Navy would begin interdicting any vessel that traversed the Strait of Hormuz or paid a toll to Iran, effective immediately, in a Truth Social post on April 12. The president also reiterated earlier threats to target Iran’s critical infrastructure if it doesn’t renounce its nuclear program.
Why It Matters
The week evoked familiar themes in the conflict:
US-Israeli dissonance over Iran was on full display. The Lebanon affair is as clear an indication as any of the divergent war aims of Israel and the United States. It’s no coincidence that the most ferocious strikes on Beirut since the war began occurred just hours after the Israelis were shocked by the ceasefire. Reports that Netanyahu made the talks announcement only after the Americans twisted his arm should surprise no one. But one notable feature of the episode is the confidence displayed by the Iranian regime, which not only brought the Strait back into play in an attempt to force Lebanon’s inclusion but was also demanding that frozen assets be released as a prerequisite for the Pakistan talks.