Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have ebbed and flowed in the decades since the second world war, but hit an undeniable low this week.
Denouncing what it proclaimed was Japan’s “reckless pursuit of ‘new militarism’”, this week China imposed new export controls on 40 Japanese companies over dual-use items, or items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
The move came as Tokyo protested against joint exercises by Chinese and Russian bombers near its airspace, and claims that the Chinese coast guard had entered its Exclusive Economic Zone. Japan also announced it was deploying missiles launchers on its easternmost island.
What has sparked the tit-for-tat tensions, and is an off-ramp likely?
What led to the latest tensions?
In November 2025, less than three weeks after taking office, Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi sparked controversy when she said that an attack on Taiwan could trigger the deployment of her country’s self-defence forces if the conflict posed an existential threat to Japan.
Takaichi’s comments were not a deviation from official policy, but in the past Japanese leaders have avoided commenting on potential Japanese military involvement in Taiwan.
Beijing’s response was swift and furious: it accused Takaichi of interfering in domestic Chinese affairs, implemented economic sanctions, cancelled diplomatic meetings and discouraged its citizens from visiting Japan. Flights have been reduced, academic and cultural exchanges cancelled, while a ban on the import of Japanese seafood has been continued.
Do Japan and China have a history of hostility?
Despite being colonised and exploited by foreign powers including Britain, France, the United States, Russia, and Germany, China feels keenly its suffering at the hands of the Japanese, a much smaller Asian neighbour that it influenced culturally and linguistically.
Beijing believes Tokyo has never sufficiently apologised for Japan’s brutal second-war occupation of China. It is this wound that China evokes when it accuses Japan of remilitarising and threatening regional peace.
Dozens of apologies have been made by Japanese prime ministers, cabinet members and major corporations, along with expressions of remorse by emperors and other senior figures. But Japan falls short in comparison with Germany, which went to extraordinary lengths to learn from its wartime history.
At the same time, visits by Japanese politicians to Yasukuni Shrine, where the souls of “Class A war criminals” who were convicted of plotting and waging the war are said to be enshrined, fuel claims the nation is still in denial about a dark chapter in its history.
Is Japan pursuing ‘neo-militarism’?
China’s growing assertiveness and concerns about whether Japan can rely on the US under Donald Trump are driving its push to boost its defence capabilities. Japan has increased its defence budget by 9.4% to around $58bn this year, as it moves towards a target of spending 2% of GDP.
Revisions of the pacifist clause in Japan’s constitution, imposed postwar by the US, is a longstanding mission of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s right wing, of which Takaichi is a part. They argue that its restrictions on Japan’s ability to defend itself against a more powerful China and a nuclear-armed North Korea are unrealistic in the face of current geopolitical realities.
Though China’s spending on defence is nearly five times larger than Japan’s at $275bn, its huge population makes its per capita spending lower, something Beijing emphasises in its claims about Japanese remilitarisation. However, many observers believe China understates its defence budget, partly by reclassifying military research and other related spending.
How have tensions affected trade, and is a rapprochement likely?
Frosty relations have hurt commerce. China has restricted rare earth exports (and recently arrested two Japanese nationals it accuses of flouting those regulations). Chinese tourist visits to Japan dropped 45% in February, while Japanese films have seen lucrative releases in China nixed.
Despite vacillating political temperatures over the decades, business between the two continues to expand, topping $322bn in 2025. Though there are concerns about longer-term impacts, bilateral trade continued to grow in the first five months of this year.
Ultimately, this economic interdependence may halt further escalation.
Japanese diplomatic efforts are now focused on rapprochement via an expected meeting between Takaichi and China’s Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen this November.
But senior Chinese figures, including foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, have repeatedly called for Takaichi to withdraw her comments on Taiwan, something she will be loath to do given how popular they were with her supporters.