Beijing seems to be seeking to ensure stability in U.S.-China relations for the rest of Trump’s term in office — as long as the U.S. doesn’t make any perceived false moves on Beijing-claimed Taiwan, one of the most sensitive issues in the relationship.
Trump and Xi tour Zhongnanhai Garden in Beijing today. Evan Vucci / Getty Images
According to a Chinese readout of the Trump-Xi talks yesterday, the two leaders agreed to work toward a relationship of “constructive strategic stability,” a phrase that Xi said would guide ties for the next three years and beyond.
There was no mention of the concept in the U.S. readout of the talks, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to allude to it in an interview with NBC News.
“One of the things the Chinese emphasize, which we agree, is strategic stability in our relationship, a constructive relationship, but also one that establishes strategic stability so that we don’t have misunderstandings that could lead to broader conflict,” he told “NBC Nightly News” anchor Tom Llamas in Beijing.
The new framing accepts that the U.S.-China relationship is a competitive one, while potentially allowing China to define what kind of competition crosses the line, Chinese affairs commentator Bill Bishop said in his Sinocism newsletter.
“The Chinese government wants a period of strategic détente and this concept could realize that on terms favorable to them for the rest of Trump’s second term,” he said.
Any future U.S. action that China doesn’t like, such as combating Chinese industrial overcapacity or tightening export controls, “could then be cast by Beijing as violations of the new ‘constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability’ to which the two leaders personally agreed,” Bishop said.
Stability could also be threatened by disputes over Taiwan, a self-ruling democracy that relies on the U.S. to resist China’s designs on it. During their talks yesterday, Xi warned Trump that the Taiwan issue could lead to “clashes and even conflicts” between their countries if not handled carefully.
“The concept of ‘constructive strategic stability’ appears to be the new moniker for the relationship that China intends to use, at least over the next three years — we’ll see if the U.S. side uses it as well,” said Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, a partner at the Asia Group who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs during the Biden administration.
“But of course in classic Chinese fashion, President Xi makes clear this stability could be threatened if Taiwan is not managed well,” he said.