Singapore: resilient but not immune
Glory Wee was candid about the scale of disruption for Singapore, where every flight is international and every crisis is felt immediately. Before the conflict escalated, Singapore operated more than 150 weekly flights to key Middle Eastern cities.
More than 80% were cancelled in the immediate aftermath, though services have partially recovered to around 55 weekly flights.
Changi Airport Group has added roughly 95 alternative flights in response, with further services to Manchester, Milan, Munich, and Gatwick planned from July, and Singapore Airlines set to resume flights to Madrid via Barcelona from October.
Despite a modest 2% year-on-year increase in visitor arrivals in the first quarter, Wee cautioned that the International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth projection for 2026 down to 3.1% from 3.4% in 2025, with the figure potentially falling to 2.5% or even 2% if the conflict is prolonged.
Given that aviation tracks GDP closely, she warned the industry to brace for further pressure. On workforce, Wee described the challenge as existential for Singapore, given its fertility rate of 0.87 and limited labour pool.
The Civil Aviation Authority found that at least 30% of more than 60,000 aviation workers were already experiencing significant job redesign — and that was before the latest wave of artificial intelligence developments.
Singapore’s response combines deployment of autonomous vehicles and AI tools to reduce dependence on manual labour, earlier integration of aviation skills into education curricula, and a model of tripartism — tight collaboration between government, industry, and trade unions.
A tripartite jobs council has recently been formed specifically to support workers navigating the AI transition.
ASEAN: use the crisis as a catalyst
Satvinder Singh offered measured optimism, noting that the region entered 2026 from a position of unexpected strength. Despite US tariffs averaging 20%, ASEAN’s GDP grew to 4.9% in 2025, above the projected 4.2%, while intra-regional trade surged from $3.8 trillion to $4.3 trillion.
Singh described a spirit of solidarity among ASEAN leaders, including Thailand’s offer to share jet fuel surpluses with neighbouring countries facing supply shortages.
He argued that the crisis creates a genuine opportunity to accelerate long-delayed reforms, including the full ratification of ASEAN’s air services agreement; gradual liberalisation of air cargo — critical given the region produces 60 to 70% of the world’s semiconductors; and harmonisation of safety and consumer protection standards.
He also pointed to the imminent signing of what he described as the world’s largest legally binding regional digital agreement, to be concluded at the ASEAN summit in Manila later this year, as evidence of what collective action can achieve.
Decarbonisation: ambition with pragmatism
The panel addressed the tension between climate commitments and affordability. Wee outlined Singapore’s SAF levy, designed to be transparent and affordable: roughly $0.80 (US) added to an economy-class fare from Singapore to Bangkok, $5 to London, and $8 to New York.
The implementation timeline has been adjusted to give airlines and travellers more time to adapt, but Singapore remains committed to increasing SAF uptake to between 3% and 5% by 2030. Wee was clear that the trade-off is not between sustainability and connectivity but about sequencing the transition carefully and ensuring no country is left behind.
Singh added that the energy crisis may itself hasten the green transition, with ASEAN’s status as one of the world’s largest producers of agricultural by-products and palm oil giving the region a natural advantage in biofuel development.
Baronci closed by cautioning governments against using aviation as a revenue source through taxes unrelated to improving transport infrastructure, warning that such measures risk undermining the sector’s broader social and economic role.