The highly anticipated meeting in Beijing of the leaders of China and the United States this Thursday and Friday was supposed to be the most consequential foreign visit of President Donald Trump’s second term.
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And it could have been, if the trip had taken place as planned six weeks ago.
Back then, on short notice, Trump postponed it because of his attack on Iran, hoping for a quick success.
The Chinese hosts, although allergic to unscripted last-minute changes to protocol, were accommodating – they didn’t want to be publicly humiliated by the whims of Trump.
So, the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping will (probably) happen, but don’t expect any major results now.
“The summit’s diplomacy has only reinforced the deeper drivers diminishing the likelihood of substantive gains,” said Jonathan Czin, a China expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“By signalling early and loudly a desire for multiple presidential encounters this year, the Trump administration may have reduced Beijing’s incentive to offer any major concessions,” he added.
After ten weeks of Iran war and the increasingly difficult attempts to find an end to the conflict, Trump’s position has become more precarious, as oil prices have surged and his approval ratings plummeted.
Therefore, Trump needs some sort of deal with China – or at least a considerable amount of Chinese goodwill – that he can sell as a victory at home, especially before the crucial midterm elections in November that will determine the president’s political fate in the second half of his last term in office.
Maybe that’s why he sounds much less hawkish on China today than in his first term.
Trump wants China to help end the war in Iran
Having failed to accomplish any of his military objectives, Trump desperately wants China to use its influence on Iran to help bring the war to a rapid end. So far, however, Beijing has shown little interest in wading into a conflict that it considers entirely of Washington’s own making.
Instead, Xi prefers “to let the US embroil itself in another Middle East conflict while Chinese firms sell satellite imagery to Iran used to target US forces in the region,” as Michael Froman of the Council on Foreign Relations observed.
All in all, the Chinese response to Trump’s foreign policy adventures has been carefully measured, with a strong emphasis on preserving stability and maintaining the global balance of power.
Beijing’s main concern is that whatever emerges as a new version of Iran does not stand in the way of Chinese interests.
“China has opted for a calculated containment strategy based on tough rhetoric and public rejection of US hegemony,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, senior fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Brueghel.
“However, it has not so far – at least overtly – crossed the red lines Washington has drawn, particularly on arms supplies to Iran.”
As the international context works in Beijing’s favour, China can afford to be an innocent bystander, eager not to get involved with taking sides – for now.
The country has increased its strategic oil reserves and invested heavily in green energies so it can easily weather the energy crunch sparked by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
If nothing else, the conflict has vindicated China’s approach to energy security, becoming less exposed to supply disruption and price volatility.
But as China is an export-oriented economy, it cannot afford watching the world tumble into recession, as that would mean bad business for Beijing, especially now that China’s domestic demand has slumped.
“The Chinese are affected by the prospect of a global economic slowdown. So, they’ve got interests on both sides,” said Edgar Kagan, a former special assistant to President Joe Biden and senior director for East Asia in the National Security Council.
“On one hand, they clearly don’t want the US to be too successful. On the other hand, if the strait remains closed that has very significant implications.”
In addition to Chinese leverage with Iran, Trump wants China to buy more American industrial goods and agriculture products as well as an extension of the fragile trade truce.
To emphasize that he means business, the US president will be flanked in China by 16 chief executives, according to a list distributed by the White House on Monday evening.
Among them is Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk – the latest sign that the richest person on the planet has mended fences with Trump, after a very public falling out a year ago.
The delegation appears focused on sectors where Washington and Beijing could strike concrete deals: aviation (Boeing), tech (Apple, Meta), finance (Citi, Goldman Sachs), agriculture (Cargill) and semiconductors (Qualcomm).
Boeing aircraft purchases and Chinese rare-earth exports are reportedly central topics.
Beijing is not expecting a grand “reset,” but it does want a more predictable economic relationship.
A central Chinese demand is likely the easing of US export controls on advanced chips and semiconductor equipment.
China sees these restrictions as the most serious long-term threat to its technological ambitions in AI, aerospace and advanced manufacturing.
It also wants the current tariff truce extended. After their 2025 agreement, both sides temporarily suspended some tariffs and export-control measures.
Beijing’s goal now is to prevent a return to full-scale trade war conditions.
“But even if they don’t get much on any of those things, as long as there’s not a blow-up in the meeting and President Trump doesn’t go away and look to re-escalate, China basically comes out stronger,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.
Europe’s fears: becoming collateral damage
Some European leaders may find the prospect of a stronger China and a weaker America under Trump appealing.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who is hardly an ally of Donald Trump, has consistently argued that Europe should maintain dialogue and economic ties with China, even amid growing tensions between Washington and Beijing.
“China and Europe have prospered together in the past and there is no reason why they should not do so again,” he said last month.
But experts stress the importance of a balanced relationship between the two superpowers for Europe.
“We should be worried that the Europeans, after their difficult experience with Trump, swing too much in the direction of China,” said Jonas Parello-Plesner, a visiting fellow in the Indo-Pacific programme of the German Marshall Fund (GMF).
“China is still a systemic threat – and if the Chinese play hardball with Trump, Europe will have nothing to gain.”
A renewed US-China tariff war or sanctions escalations could hit European industries through weaker global demand, disrupted supply chains and financial volatility.
Thus, Brussels hopes to avoid becoming collateral damage in an economic confrontation between Washington and Beijing.
This could happen when Chinese exports, because of high US tariffs, get redirected toward Europe at lower prices threatening EU companies.
The EU also wants China to keep its rare earths exports flowing, essential for electric cars, batteries and green technology.
Last year’s truce on rare earths between the US and China was extended to the Europeans and was only agreed for a year until October 2026.
China holds a quasi-monopolistic position over so-called rare earths, the 17 metallic elements that are crucial for advanced technologies. The country commands roughly 60% of the world’s supply and 90% of the processing and refining capacity.
The concern in Brussels today is that Trump could negotiate bilateral supply guarantees for the US while Europe is left outside the arrangement – a concern well-grounded in experience.
“Realistically, the Trump-Xi talks are becoming very bilateral,” said Parello-Plessner. “And one thing is certain: Trump will only speak for himself.”