Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
The military situation around Hormuz remains active even as diplomacy accelerates behind the scenes. US Central Command said Thursday that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small boats toward US naval vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman, including the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason. According to Centcom, no US assets were hit. American forces then carried out retaliatory strikes on missile and drone launch positions, command facilities, and intelligence infrastructure tied to the attack. What stands out here is that Washington does not appear to view the incident as requiring a broader escalation response.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC as of May 1st is about who controls the Gulf oil strategy after the crisis ends. Abu Dhabi spent years expanding capacity toward 5 million barrels per day while remaining constrained by Saudi-led quota discipline. The Iran war created the perfect exit window. With Hormuz partially shut and Gulf exports disrupted, other producers cannot immediately flood the market in retaliation even if they wanted to. The UAE can leave the cartel now, absorb limited short-term blowback, and position itself for the moment the Strait reopens. At that point, Abu Dhabi would be free to monetize spare capacity without waiting for OPEC approval. Saudi Arabia needs higher oil prices and stable markets to finance Vision 2030 and its enormous domestic spending commitments.…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
The military situation around Hormuz remains active even as diplomacy accelerates behind the scenes. US Central Command said Thursday that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small boats toward US naval vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman, including the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason. According to Centcom, no US assets were hit. American forces then carried out retaliatory strikes on missile and drone launch positions, command facilities, and intelligence infrastructure tied to the attack. What stands out here is that Washington does not appear to view the incident as requiring a broader escalation response.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC as of May 1st is about who controls the Gulf oil strategy after the crisis ends. Abu Dhabi spent years expanding capacity toward 5 million barrels per day while remaining constrained by Saudi-led quota discipline. The Iran war created the perfect exit window. With Hormuz partially shut and Gulf exports disrupted, other producers cannot immediately flood the market in retaliation even if they wanted to. The UAE can leave the cartel now, absorb limited short-term blowback, and position itself for the moment the Strait reopens. At that point, Abu Dhabi would be free to monetize spare capacity without waiting for OPEC approval. Saudi Arabia needs higher oil prices and stable markets to finance Vision 2030 and its enormous domestic spending commitments. The UAE increasingly views oil as a finite asset that should be monetized aggressively before long-term demand weakens. The fracture also extends beyond oil policy itself. Saudi Arabia and the UAE already back opposing sides in Sudan and Yemen, and their regional interests increasingly diverge across the Red Sea, Horn of Africa, and broader Middle East. The market impact will not be immediate oversupply. The bigger issue is that OPEC loses the appearance of a unified Gulf bloc, and once that perception weakens, markets begin pricing in the possibility that Saudi Arabia eventually abandons unilateral price defense and shifts toward a market share strategy instead. If that happens, the next major oil war will not center on U.S. shale, but on China and India, where Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Russia would all be fighting for the same barrels-to-market advantage.
Russia’s proposed Victory Day ceasefire is becoming part of the war itself rather than a pause in it. Moscow announced a unilateral May 8-9 truce tied to the Red Square celebrations, while Ukraine responded with its own May 5-6 ceasefire proposal that Russia refused to recognize. Both sides then continued strikes while accusing the other of sabotaging peace efforts. Ukrainian drones struck Crimea and multiple Russian regions overnight, while Russian attacks killed civilians in Dnipro. The fighting is intensifying as Moscow prepares for the May 9 parade under heavy security after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russian territory. Putin has warned that any disruption of the celebrations would trigger a “massive missile strike” on Kyiv, and warned foreign embassies to evacuate. Reports surrounding the Kremlin’s security posture continue growing more extreme, with Russian officials and security sources describing tightened controls around Red Square, heightened fears of sabotage, and increasingly visible personal protection measures around Putin himself.
The Trump administration is now moving to shut down one of the climate movement’s most important legal strategies against the oil industry. The DOJ filed an action Monday seeking to block Minnesota’s 2020 lawsuit accusing ExxonMobil, Koch Industries, Flint Hills Resources, and the American Petroleum Institute of misleading the public on climate change. More than a dozen Democratic-led states have filed similar lawsuits over the past several years, trying to use state consumer fraud laws and public nuisance claims to extract potentially massive damages from oil companies after Congress failed to pass sweeping federal climate legislation. The administration’s argument is that states are trying to impose national climate policy through the courts while bypassing federal authority over emissions regulation and interstate energy policy. The move follows Trump’s rollback of the EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding earlier this year.. The fight is now becoming a much larger constitutional and jurisdictional battle over who actually controls climate policy in the United States.
The Sudan war is becoming another fault line in the widening split between the UAE and Saudi Arabia after Abu Dhabi’s exit from OPEC left Riyadh managing the oil alliance without its most important Gulf partner. Sudan’s army is now openly accusing the UAE of direct involvement in drone strikes targeting Khartoum airport, claiming Emirati-owned drones launched from Ethiopia struck several locations in recent months. The UAE denied the allegations, and this is not likely a move in the Abu Dhabi playbook; rather, it appears more likely to be a tactic by the Sudanese Army to pressure its backers (the Saudis) to raise the stakes. The UAE has backed and armed the RSF paramilitary force while Saudi Arabia has aligned more closely with the Sudanese army, putting the two Gulf powers on opposite sides of one of the world’s deadliest conflicts. Egypt and Saudi Arabia both condemned the airport attack and warned against foreign interference, while the Trump administration also called for external support to both sides to end. The fighting itself continues to expand geographically. The RSF lost control of Khartoum but consolidated its hold across much of Darfur and opened another front near the Ethiopian border in Blue Nile state, where drone warfare is becoming increasingly central to the conflict.
Libya is now trying to position itself inside the global scramble for strategic minerals as Western governments search for alternatives to Chinese-controlled supply chains. Officials from the Government of National Unity met with the U.S. Geological Survey in Washington this week to expand cooperation on geological mapping and resource assessment tied to rare earths and other strategic minerals. The talks built on meetings held over the past year and involved senior Libyan officials from the oil, transport, and economy ministries alongside representatives from the National Mining Corporation. The objective is straightforward: turn mining into a second strategic resource sector alongside oil. Libya is trying to attract foreign investment, map commercially viable deposits, and position itself as a future supplier of minerals tied to defense, energy transition technologies, and advanced manufacturing. Western governments are aggressively searching for new sources of strategic minerals outside China, while Libya remains one of the least developed major resource jurisdictions in North Africa.
Higher oil prices are boosting Libya’s revenues, but they are also driving up the country’s dependence on imported fuel. The National Oil Corporation said fuel import costs surged to roughly $917 million in April, up from $586 million a year earlier, as Libya paid more for imported products and increased volumes at the same time. The jump came even as oil revenues rose sharply. Libya generated about $2.83 billion from crude exports despite lower export volumes after a fire disrupted flows from the Sharara field. Brent averaging above $103 per barrel more than offset the decline in shipments. Libya remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel despite being a major crude producer. Large portions of domestic crude continue flowing abroad while Libya imports gasoline and refined products back into the country because of weak refining capacity, infrastructure problems, and years of underinvestment. The NOC also confirmed that fuel imports are now being managed through a new financial mechanism involving the Libyan Foreign Bank and Central Bank after the suspension of the barter system last year.
Venezuela told the International Court of Justice this week that it does not recognize the court’s authority in the dispute with Guyana over the oil-rich Esequibo region, keeping alive a territorial claim tied to some of the largest offshore discoveries made in recent years. The interim government continues pressing the same strategic claims over Guyanese oil territory despite repeated claims from Washington that a new era of oversight and accountability exists inside Venezuela’s oil sector after Maduro’s removal in January. Much of the same oil structure remains intact. Investigations into PDVSA’s operations during Maduro’s final years revealed billions of dollars in unpaid oil exports, shell-company trading schemes, and politically connected intermediaries moving crude through preferential arrangements. The Trump administration says new audits and oversight systems are being implemented, but very little has been publicly shown so far. Guyana wants the World Court to uphold the 1899 border ruling. Venezuela continues insisting the dispute should be resolved politically through direct negotiations.
Kazakhstan says it plans to stop importing electricity from Russia by 2027 as it brings new domestic generation capacity online, cutting another major piece of Russian energy influence out of its economy. Astana still expects a power deficit this year and will continue relying on Russian imports in the short term, but officials say dozens of new energy projects are scheduled for completion over the next two years. This disrupts one of the few export markets still supporting Russia’s electricity sector after exports to China collapsed earlier this year because of shortages in Russia’s Far East. Kazakhstan accounted for roughly 60% of Russian electricity exports in 2025. Astana is also removing Russian companies from major infrastructure projects and replacing them with Chinese suppliers or domestic alternatives.
On Thursday, Trump gave the EU until July 4 (yes, July 4th, to make a point of some sort) to fully implement last year’s Scotland trade agreement or face “much higher” tariffs, including on European vehicles. The dispute centers on EU delays in implementing legislation that would cut tariffs on U.S. industrial goods to zero and expand duty-free access for certain American exports. Instead of consolidating allies ahead of a potentially much larger confrontation with China, the White House is increasing economic pressure on Europe while demanding alignment on Iran, trade, and security all at once.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
Australia is moving closer to a decision on Woodside’s massive $30B Browse gas project, one of the country’s most politically sensitive energy developments that butts up against its climate commitments. Internal government documents show final advice could reach Environment Minister Murray Watt within weeks, potentially clearing the way for a project that would operate until 2070 and feed gas into the North West Shelf LNG system through a 900-kilometer offshore pipeline. Environmental opposition remains intense because of the project’s proximity to Scott Reef and its projected emissions profile, but the broader political direction increasingly favors energy security and export stability over climate restrictions. The government has already approved the North West Shelf extension to 2070, effectively keeping the door open for Browse, while also rejecting proposals for a major new tax on gas exporters after industry warnings that such measures would kill investment. Woodside itself is behaving as though approval is increasingly likely, already moving forward with contractor selection and engineering work for offshore production infrastructure.
Devon Energy missed Wall Street earnings estimates by two cents on Tuesday, but the real focus is the company’s merger with Coterra and the next phase of shale consolidation. Devon reported adjusted Q1 earnings of $1.04 per share against expectations of $1.06, while generating $816 million in free cash flow and producing 387,000 barrels per day of oil, at the top end of guidance. The company is now days away from finalizing its all-stock merger with Coterra after shareholders approved the deal this week. The combined company will retain the Devon name and emerge as one of the largest shale producers in the U.S. with a dominant position in the Delaware Basin. Devon says the merger will generate $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies by 2027, while management is already hinting at larger dividends and a buyback authorization above $5 billion once the transaction closes.
Petrobras has agreed to acquire additional interests in the Jubarte field in Brazil’s Campos Basin from Shell, ONGC, and Enauta, increasing its ownership stake to 98.11% and tightening its control over one of the country’s major offshore producing assets. The deal covers a portion of the Argonauta area tied to the Jubarte shared reservoir and is valued at roughly R$700 million plus $150 million. Jubarte, part of the Parque das Baleias development, currently produces around 210,000 barrels per day.
Discovery & Development
INEOS Energy and Shell are expanding their offshore partnership in the Gulf of America with a new agreement focused on developing oil and gas discoveries around the Appomattox platform. INEOS is taking a 21% stake in several nearby projects, including Shell’s Fort Sumter discovery and the planned Sisco exploration well. The strategy is straightforward: use infrastructure already operating in the area instead of spending billions on entirely new offshore systems. These discoveries are close enough to Appomattox to connect directly into existing platforms and pipeline networks, cutting development costs and bringing production online faster.
Equinor has started gas production from the Eirin field in the Norwegian North Sea, bringing a discovery abandoned nearly five decades ago into Europe’s supply system at a time when the continent is still trying to replace lost Russian gas volumes. The field, discovered in 1978 and long considered uneconomic, is now producing through a subsea tieback connected to the Gina Krog and Sleipner platforms. The project was reassessed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped Europe’s energy priorities and pushed Norway into a much larger role as the continent’s primary gas supplier. Equinor and its partner Orlen developed Eirin in just three years by connecting it to infrastructure already operating in the area rather than building a standalone offshore system. The field is expected to extend the life of the Gina Krog platform by seven years while sending additional gas volumes into Europe through the Norwegian export network and onward into Poland through the Baltic Pipe. European offshore strategy has changed since 2022. Fields once considered too small or marginal are now becoming commercially viable again.
Egypt has confirmed a new natural gas discovery in the Nile Delta as Cairo scrambles to slow a rapidly rising energy import bill triggered by the Iran conflict and tightening regional gas markets. The discovery, made jointly by Eni and BP in the West Abu Madi concession area, is expected to produce around 50 million cubic feet per day and can be connected quickly because the well lies less than two kilometers from existing infrastructure. Egypt has been under growing pressure since the Iran war sent LNG and pipeline gas costs soaring, with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly saying earlier this year that the country’s gas import bill had risen by roughly $1.1 billion per month after the conflict began. Cairo is now accelerating domestic drilling activity while trying to stabilize relations with international operators by paying down overdue debts owed to foreign oil and gas companies.