Manufacturing and agro-allied industries have been identified as the primary drivers of Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation under Agenda 2050, according to the newly released Industrial Policy by the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI).
The policy outlines a strategic framework to reposition the industrial sector as the engine of sustained growth, economic diversification and job creation, with a strong emphasis on value addition, export expansion and human capital development.
It aligns with Nigeria’s broader ambition of attaining upper-middle-income status by 2050 through successive National Development Plans anchored on macroeconomic stability, private sector participation and infrastructure development.
Under the framework, manufacturing is projected to expand its contribution to gross domestic product, while the agro-allied sector is expected to deepen industrial linkages by supplying critical raw materials and boosting rural employment.
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The ministry noted that strengthening these sectors would be critical to reducing import dependence, improving competitiveness and accelerating inclusive economic growth over the long term.
As contained in the policy, the current National Development Plan (2021–2025) aims to achieve average annual GDP growth of 4.6 per cent, lift 35 million Nigerians out of poverty, and create 21 million jobs, while improving access to healthcare, education and critical infrastructure.
“Nigeria’s long-term economic development is guided by Agenda 2050, a prospective plan aiming to transform the country into an upper-middle-income nation. This plan is supported by a series of medium-term National Development Plans, with the current one spanning 2021-2025.
“The 2025-2050 period will likely see continued implementation of these plans, focusing on diversification, infrastructure development, and human capital development. A closer look at these plans shows that Nigeria Agenda 2050 has the vision of transforming Nigeria into an upper-middle-income country with a significant increase in per capita income.”
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Subsequent plans covering 2026–2030 and beyond are expected to consolidate these gains and accelerate industrialisation, export-led growth and private sector participation.
At the heart of the transformation agenda is the industrial sector, which remains pivotal to Nigeria’s economic structure, but oil and gas continue to dominate foreign exchange earnings, accounting for over 88 per cent of FX receipts and about 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2024 (3.4 per cent rebased).
The ministry noted, however, that policymakers are increasingly prioritising non-oil industrial segments to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and commodity price volatility.
Manufacturing, which contributed about 8.9 per cent (8.2 per cent rebased) to GDP in 2024, is projected to rise to 10 per cent in 2025. The sector employs roughly 12 per cent of the formal labour force and spans food and beverage processing, cement production, textiles, pharmaceuticals and automotive assembly.
“The industrial sector is a key driver of Nigeria’s economy, with oil and gas being the largest contributors to foreign exchange earnings at 88.3% and 5.5% of GDP in 2024 (3.4% as rebased). The sector has the potential to drive economic growth and development despite observed constraints.
“This is evident in the 8.9% (8.2% as rebased) contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP in 2024, which is estimated to increase to 10% in 2025, employing about 12% of the formal labour force, and the $14.1 million market size projection for the Energy Management Systems (EMS) in 2025.”
The report added that Industry stakeholders say that with improved infrastructure, stable power supply and better access to finance, manufacturing could significantly expand its share of GDP beyond single digits.
The agro-allied industry is also central to Nigeria’s industrial ambitions. Over the past decade, agriculture and agro-processing have accounted for an average of 25 per cent (27 per cent rebased) of real GDP and currently provide employment for about 35 per cent of the workforce, estimated at 35.8 million people as of 2024.
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The sector supplies critical raw materials for manufacturing value chains, including food processing, leather goods and textiles, thereby strengthening industrial linkages and inclusive growth.
Despite its potential, the manufacturing sector continues to grapple with structural constraints such as high borrowing costs, foreign exchange challenges, rising input prices, unstable electricity supply, inadequate water access, poor road infrastructure and the use of obsolete equipment.
The influx of cheaper imported goods, including textiles, footwear, electronics and processed foods, has further eroded competitiveness, while consumer preference for foreign products, estimated at N26.8 trillion in 2024, underscores the scale of the challenge.
Similarly, the agro-allied sector faces limited mechanisation, post-harvest losses, outdated farming techniques and insecurity.
Nonetheless, experts note that investments in mechanisation, improved seed varieties, agro-processing hubs and technology-driven agribusiness models could unlock significant productivity gains.
In response, the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI) has unveiled a 2025 roadmap anchored on human capital development and technology adoption. The roadmap seeks to build a resilient and high-value manufacturing base by strengthening skills development, promoting innovation and fostering closer collaboration between government and the private sector.
The ministry is also banking on Special Economic Zones (SEZs), Nigeria’s participation in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) to expand market access and boost non-oil exports.
“Its core objectives are diversification of the economy, poverty reduction, and achieving social and economic stability. This is with a focus on Agriculture, manufacturing, oil and gas, solid minerals, infrastructure, digital economy, and human capital development. The plans go with the key themes and strategies for diversification, infrastructure development, human capital, private sector involvement, and macroeconomic stability. All these hinge on the overall development of the various industries that hold the economy,” the policy read.
