In 2019, when Monika and Nishant Prasad, an Indian couple settled in
Dubai, invested nearly AED 2 million (INR 5.1 crore) in their dream home, their decisions felt instinctive. The glitzy UAE city was their comfort zone, they had secured a good deal, and the development promised great resale value.
Their faith wasn’t misplaced. The property at Mudon, a family-oriented suburban community, has more than doubled in value, and despite recent disruptions, they see no reason to press the panic button. “The thought hasn’t even crossed our minds,” says Monika. “We have seen how the UAE coped with Covid; it is sure to overcome this situation too.”
The confidence exhibited by the Prasads and hundreds of Indian expats like them stands in stark contrast to the doomsday predictions after the missile strikes began on February 28. The geo-political volatility, slowdown in aviation, hospitality and tourism, and rising energy prices added a lot of fuel to the fiery speculations.
Yet, eight weeks on, a closer look at the real estate scene reveals a more nuanced picture of a price correction on one hand, and collective efforts made by stakeholders and the government to cushion the impact on the other. The image that emerges is of a market scenario pausing to recalibrate rather than slipping into a freefall.
A realistic then vs now
Long recognised as the crown jewel of the UAE’s growth story, the sector’s appeal was built on strong fundamentals like clear regulations, investor-friendly policies such as the
Golden Visa, a stable dirham-dollar peg, high quality of life and safety. But there has been a temporary decline since March, since the war began.
Dr. Amit Goenka, Chairman and Managing Director, Nisus Finance, who specialises in urban infrastructure financing and the private capital market, believes transaction volumes are now operating at lower rates than before, with activities mainly focused on A-list players. “Off-sale plans have cooled off in the immediate aftermath. Smaller developers are feeling the impact more than bigger names, and the previously booming office segment has softened,” he sums up the trend of the last two months.
The flip side: despite volumes dipping, pricing remains stable, an indication that sellers, harking back to Dubai’s track record, are showing patience, according to Ahmad Sultan Al Shammari, Group Head of Sales, Palladium Prime Real Estate Development. “Well-located, well-designed projects by credible developers continue to outperform, and buyer demographics haven’t changed either. There’s continued demand from CIS, Europe, South Asia and the GCC even in the midst of the conflict. This is not a market slowdown, but a shift toward more disciplined decision-making,” he notes.
Questions among investors
Sources within the industry admit that phone lines, especially from India, have been ringing to enquire about distress sales for a good deal to tap into but fact is, that there hasn’t been an exodus for bargain hunters as of now.
However, for existing investors, the concerns are different: potential delays, increase in the price of materials, impact on interest rates, worries about rental gains in some areas and the big question – is it worth staying invested?
“These are not fear-based questions, but rather focused on timing and strategy,” says Abhishek Jalan, CEO of Grovy Developers, adding that the immediate effect of the war is more “emotional than related to the reality of the conditions”.
He lists the silver linings. Overall construction continued, and supply chains, mobilisation of contractors and the schedules for executing projects were still being completed. “During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, high-value investors may briefly pause to reassess, but it’s typically short-lived. Premium, branded residences are still seen as long-term wealth assets rather than speculative plays for quick profits,” he says.
Are Indian investors different?
This is especially true for Indian investors, among the largest group of foreign property buyers in Dubai. In 2025 alone, Indians accounted for nearly 22% of total transactions, rising to as much as 28% in some off-plan segments.
For this group, the war may have raised questions but not altered perceptions. And the reason points to factors differentiating Indian real estate investors from others. Luthfullah K, Director, Dubai, Casagrand, says Indians have traditionally taken a long-term, value-driven approach, often with comfort around off-plan investments. “Currently, there is an evolution; buyers, across segments, are becoming more discerning and focused on quality, location and developer credibility. Investors are aligning around long-term value,” he notes.
Recent headlines give an indication to the direction in which the sector is headed.
In March, during the height of the conflict, an off-plan luxury unit in the Jumeirah 2 area sold for AED422 million (INR 1076 crore).
Open houses organised by developers like BNW Developments, DAMAC and others have attracted huge crowds with enquiries galore.
Several big time developers have announced relief and incentives with an A-list player declaring the gift of a luxury car with a purchase of a home.
According to a report by CBRE Middle East, a leading commercial real estate services firm, while regional tensions dented sentiment in March, a shortage of high-quality office and industrial space continued to support rents, occupancy and investor confidence. Despite UAE GDP growth for 2026 being revised down to 0.3%, office markets remained tight due to limited supply.
In Dubai, average office rents rose 14% year-on-year, prime rents increased 16%, and occupancy held at around 95%, driven by a continued shortage of Grade A space, according to the CBRE report.
The government too has stepped in. In a swift rule change this week, Dubai eased property visa norms: solo owners no longer face a minimum value threshold, while joint owners must each hold at least AED 400,000 (INR 1.02 crore) to qualify.
Developers woo buyers
Companies are moving quickly too. Luthfullah notes how developers have been seen adopting more flexible and buyer-focused pricing structures, including targeted incentives, payment flexibility, fee waivers or tailored plans. “We’ve proactively engaged with customers ourselves to understand their needs and support them through value-led initiatives, waivers and special pricing incentives,” he says.
At the same time, the resilience message is being amplified by the government, emphasising normal city life, uninterrupted services, minimal civilian impact and no visible polarisation due to the war.
These cumulative efforts will pay off in a year or so, believes Goenka. “The focus may shift from tourism to manufacturing to reduce dependency on imports and they will need to invest internally. Expect public spending, job creation, easier visas and mortgages and measures like rental home support to go up,” he says.
Is it the time to buy?
Amid this churn, the bigger winners could be astute buyers with a medium to long-term perspective, provided they exercise caution. “Global sentiment can turn quickly, so be careful with leverage and avoid projects lacking strong fundamentals or developers who don’t control execution,” warns Jalan.
Goenka advises against getting into speculative micro markets and instead focus on bargains in core micro-markets like Business Bay, Jumeirah Lake Towers or Dubai Marina. “Such areas will always remain prominent in terms of consumption and demand,” he says.
Al Shammari believes that for Indian HNIs investing in Dubai remotely, the main risk is overexposure to speculative off-plan projects. “The market is maturing, and the quick “flip” strategy is far less predictable than in previous cycles. So prioritise developers with a proven delivery track record, strong locations, reliable infrastructure and projects with clear long-term end-user or rental demand,” he suggests.
Factor in these points and the upcoming months might be the best time to get into the Dubai property market. “Look for the right asset which fits your budget. Look at deep discounts from good players. But do not buy cheap or invest in a property that’s far away or from an unbranded player. Negotiate hard. The temporary liquidity issue and fear factor may lead to developers giving discounts which otherwise they would not. Next year prices may shoot up to recoup losses,” Goenka advises.
With the slowdown giving space to assess opportunities more carefully, Tauseef Khan, founder, Dugasta Properties has tips for new investors. “If your priority is income, a ready apartment in a well-occupied area can offer a smooth and reliable start. But villas and townhouses can be a great fit if you are thinking more long-term,” he adds.
So as the market recalibrates, it is investors like Monika and Nishant Prasad who capture its underlying mood best; staying put and responding rather than reacting to a crisis. After all, in Dubai, perhaps more than most cities, the long term often has a way of outlasting the present moment.
Lekha Menon is a journalist based in Dubai.
First Published:
May 02, 2026, 06:00 IST
End of Article