On Friday, Iran said it would reopen the strait for commercial shipping following a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, while US President Donald Trump added that a US naval blockade of Iran’s ports would remain until a deal with Tehran was struck.
The fear in Japan, however, is that any further disruption to energy shipments through the strait, combined with an unusually early spell of hot weather, could leave the country facing power shortages at the worst possible moment.
In the bleakest scenario, that could force the government to introduce planned power outages, ask offices, schools and shops to shorten their hours, and cut some train and flight services.
The concern for Japan is not simply oil. While Tokyo says it has ample crude reserves, analysts warn the more immediate vulnerability is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is used to generate electricity in Japan’s major cities and is harder to store in large volumes.
That matters more as temperatures rise and demand for air conditioning begins to climb.