Yet gold and silver struggled to extend their gains, suggesting traders want clearer confirmation of a policy shift rather than relying solely on market-implied probabilities.
US Data and Geopolitical Tone Shape Short-Term Outlook
This week’s ISM Manufacturing PMI is the key release on deck. Forecasts point to a reading in the high-40s, still contractionary, but any upside surprise could strengthen the US dollar and pressure precious metals. A weaker print would reinforce the narrative of slowing economic momentum, offering renewed support for gold and silver.
A calmer geopolitical backdrop has also softened safe-haven interest. Recent diplomatic activity has reduced immediate concerns over supply disruptions or new global flashpoints, encouraging a more measured risk environment. Precious metals typically respond quickly to these shifts, and the reduced tension has removed one of the stronger drivers behind last week’s rally.
Overall, gold and silver enter the week in a balanced state, supported by rising rate-cut expectations, but tempered by subdued safe-haven demand and sensitivity to incoming US data.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold is likely to hover between $4,180–$4,257 as traders await US data, while silver may consolidate near $56.00–$57.85, with momentum favoring a retest of $59.09 if support holds.