Buybacks And Guidance
NOG repurchased 2.95 million shares in the second quarter, or about 3% of shares outstanding, at an average price of $20.37.
The board later increased the repurchase authorization by $150 million, bringing total remaining capacity to roughly $243 million.
The company expects second-quarter oil production of 67.5 Mboe to 68.25 Mboe per day and record natural gas volumes despite Permian curtailments.
Production And Spending
About 7,000 Boe per day was temporarily shut in due to weak Waha pricing, while roughly three net wells were deferred to the third quarter.
Williston and Uinta production exceeded internal expectations by 4% and 11.5%, respectively. Second-quarter capital spending is expected to be $190 million to $200 million.
Acquisitions And Hedges
NOG completed 30 Ground Game deals, adding more than 2,300 net acres and 6.2 net wells for about $45 million.
The company also closed its Duvernay acquisition for C$237 million in cash and about 3.7 million shares.
NOG estimated unrealized derivative gains of $155 million to $160 million and realized hedge losses of $85 million to $90 million.
Northern Oil and Gas Technical Analysis
At about $19.00, the stock is trading just below its 20-day simple moving average of $19.04 and its 20-day exponential moving average of $19.24. Those levels may act as near-term resistance.
The longer-term trend remains weak. NOG is trading 13.1% below its 50-day simple moving average of $21.76 and 20.7% below its 200-day simple moving average of $23.86.
The stock also remains below a bearish “death cross” that formed in June. That signal appeared when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average.
However, momentum is improving. The MACD remains above its signal line, which suggests selling pressure has eased. It also indicates buyers are gaining some control.
The next key technical level to watch is $20.
Earnings And Analyst Outlook
The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on Aug. 6.
Wall Street expects earnings of 90 cents per share, down from $1.37 a year earlier. Analysts also expect revenue to fall to $568.29 million from $706.81 million in the year-ago quarter.
Analysts have a consensus Hold rating on the stock with an average price forecast of $31.57. Recent analyst actions include:
- Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight and lowered its price forecast to $25 on June 29.
- Raymond James maintained Outperform and lowered its price forecast to $30 on June 15.
- Morgan Stanley maintained Underweight and raised its price forecast to $29 on May 22.
Northern Oil and Gas Price Action
NOG Stock Price Activity: Northern Oil and Gas shares were up 2.59% at $19.00 during premarket trading on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo via Shutterstock