Eight copper and polymetallic projects representing US$5.161 billion in investment are advancing in Mexico, with most startups targeted by 2029, positioning the portfolio as the country’s main driver of copper output growth this decade. Permitting, land-use approvals and infrastructure now dictate timelines, as the February 2026 recovery of 1,200 concessions coincides with government pledges to accelerate approvals. The outcome affects Oroco Resource, Teck Resources, Agnico Eagle, Southern Copper, Torex Gold and GoGold Resources, and will determine whether Mexico, the world’s tenth-largest copper producer, captures demand tied to electrification.
At least eight copper and polymetallic projects representing estimated investments of US$5.161 billion are moving forward in Mexico, positioned to become the main source of growth in national copper production during the second half of the decade, with most operations expected to begin by 2029, according to the BNamericas database and CAMIMEX. The portfolio advances despite the freeze on new mining concessions, delays in key permits and regulatory uncertainty that continues to affect exploration.
Two assets dominate the capital commitments: Santo Tomás, held by Oroco Resource, and San Nicolás, a venture between Teck Resources and Agnico Eagle, which together concentrate over US$4.1 billion, roughly 81% of the identified pipeline. The remainder spans brownfield growth, led by Torex Gold’s Media Luna Norte expansion, alongside a group of mid-sized and early-stage assets. What stands between these projects and production is largely administrative: environmental clearances, forestry land-use approvals, pending board decisions and enabling infrastructure now weigh more heavily on timelines than ore quality or deposit size.
The country’s output reached 700,000t of copper in 2025, placing it tenth among global producers, per the United States Geological Survey. CAMIMEX figures for 2024 put Grupo México far ahead of the field with 78% of national production; Capstone Copper, Nemisa, Industrias Peñoles and Minera Frisco follow.
Expansions and Near-Term Startups
In Guerrero, Torex Gold is building Media Luna Norte at its Morelos complex with a 4Q26 startup in sight. The company has budgeted US$100 million to US$105 million to bring the deposit online this year, within a total capital estimate of US$108 million to US$113 million. Once running, the operation adds roughly 2,500t/d of throughput, taking the complex to 12,000-13,000t/d overall. Copper output is forecast to climb from 60 million-65 million pounds in 2026 to 70 million-75 million pounds annually across 2027-2030. Torex México Vice President Faysal Rodríguez confirmed the roughly US$100 million figure and the 4Q26 timeline in November.
In Jalisco, GoGold Resources shifted Los Ricos Sur into early execution in February 2026. Detailed design is underway, long-lead equipment has been ordered, Cominvi was named underground mining contractor, and a power supply agreement was reached with the CFE for electricity from the La Yesca hydroelectric dam.
The feasibility study outlines a 2,000t/d underground operation requiring around US$227 million. GoGold said the groundwork leaves the project “ready to start work” as soon as the authorization arrives. Its second asset in the district, Los Ricos North, carries a 2027 startup in CAMIMEX’s latest annual report, indicated resources of 87.8 million silver-equivalent ounces and a 2023 preliminary economic assessment showing an after-tax NPV of US$413 million.
Large-Scale Developments
San Nicolás in Zacatecas is approaching its decisive months. The US$1.3 billion development, projected to generate an economic spillover near US$3.3 billion over its life, filed its environmental impact statement and forestry land-use change with SEMARNAT in January 2024 and anticipates rulings by the close of 2Q26. A favorable outcome would clear the path to a final investment decision in 3Q26. The deposit holds 118Mt of mineable reserves at 1.8% copper and 1.5% zinc; the planned 20,000t/d open-pit and flotation operation would average 125 million pounds of copper and 156 million pounds of zinc per year across a 17-year life, with the potential to rank as the country’s No. 3 copper producer and No. 2 in zinc.
Capital requirements at Santo Tomás, in Sinaloa, have escalated sharply: from US$1.1 billion in the August 2024 preliminary economic assessment to more than US$2.84 billion as of May 2025. Oroco’s staged open-pit design ramps from 60,000t/d in year one to 120,000t/d by year eight, averaging 99,427t/y of copper over a 22.6-year life. A phase 2 drilling campaign had logged 3,606m across 14 boreholes by May 2026, feeding into a prefeasibility study targeted for 2Q27 or 3Q27.
In Sonora, Southern Copper is studying El Pilar, a US$310 million SX-EW operation designed to deliver 36,000t/y of copper cathodes from 2029, supported by 317Mt of proven and probable reserves at 0.249% copper. The project “is progressing as planned,” CFO Raúl Jacob said. “We need to be sure of certain assumptions in order to move forward, but at this time the project is on track to become a new initiative of the company.”
Two smaller developments complete the list: San Javier, Barksdale Resources’ US$117 million copper-gold asset in Sonora, and La Fortuna, Minera Alamos’ US$26.9 million gold project in Durango. Outside the 2026-2029 window sits El Arco, Southern Copper’s US$2.9 billion Baja California project targeting 190,000t/y of copper around 2030, whose advance hinges on the peninsula’s electrical interconnection with the national grid, a task assigned to the CFE.
Regulatory Context
The portfolio advances amid tighter enforcement. In February 2026, authorities announced the recovery of 1,200 concessions across six states, covering nearly 890,000ha, with 713 located within Natural Protected Areas, most canceled for non-payment of mining duties or omission of required reports.
The government has also signaled openings: Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard announced plans to accelerate mining permit approvals in 2026 to support large-scale exploration, with up to US$7 billion in mining investment projected pending permit approvals, according to MBN. Sonora authorities report 83 active projects under monitoring, including El Pilar, part of Southern Copper’s US$10.2 billion national pipeline.
The 2026-2029 portfolio will test whether Mexico can capitalize on copper demand tied to electrification without fully resolving the sector’s permitting bottlenecks.