Unsold residential inventory is expected to exceed 610,000 units by year-end as a growing number of second-hand homes enter the market, while demand remains constrained by weak purchasing power, according to Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
The research house said the housing market continues to face an imbalance between supply and demand, with accumulated inventories rising despite a sluggish recovery in home purchases.
Residential inventory reached 590,000 units nationwide in the first quarter of 2026, up 7.2% year-on-year, driven by a sharp increase in resale homes offered for sale.
Second-hand housing listings climbed 34.2% to 240,000 units as individual owners, financial institutions and asset management companies accelerated property disposals.
In contrast, unsold new homes held by developers declined 6% year-on-year to around 350,000 units after developers curtailed new project launches amid slowing market conditions.
Although new home inventory eased slightly, it remained elevated as developers were cautious and prioritised clearing stock over expanding supply, noted K-Research.
Accumulated residential inventory is now almost twice the country’s average annual housing transfer volume, intensifying competition across the market.
The widening supply overhang has strengthened buyers’ bargaining power, while putting greater pressure on developers’ sales strategies, pricing and financial performance, said the think tank.
Greater Bangkok accounted for 52% of nationwide unsold inventory, equivalent to more than 310,000 units. Other major economic provinces, including Chon Buri, Phuket and Chiang Mai, also recorded rising inventories of both new and resale housing.
Homes priced at less than 3 million baht represented more than 60% of total inventory, or about 355,000 units, highlighting a persistent glut in the mass market segment.
However, the fastest growth was for homes priced more than 10 million baht, where accumulated inventory jumped 48% year-on-year to 46,000 units.
The increase was driven largely by resale properties rather than new launches, suggesting affluent owners are bringing more assets to market, said K-Research.
The trend could narrow investment opportunities for developers that have increasingly shifted towards premium housing to avoid intense competition in lower-priced segments.
The think tank said the rapid expansion of luxury resale supply may intensify competition, even in higher-end markets that previously appeared more resilient.
The research house expects nationwide residential inventory to rise 4.5% this year to more than 610,000 units as second-hand listings continue increasing, while new project launches remain subdued.
Although the government extended transfer and mortgage fee reductions for homes priced up to 7 million baht, the measure is unlikely to fully offset weak consumer confidence and fragile purchasing power.
K-Research expects nationwide housing transfers to increase by 2.1% in 2026, despite a 13.4% year-on-year rise during the first four months, reflecting expectations that market momentum will soften in the second half.
The growing gap between inventory and demand suggests Thailand’s residential market is entering a more buyer-friendly phase, with developers likely to remain cautious on new investment until excess supply is gradually absorbed, noted the research house.