Russia says it could produce as much as 500 tonnes of mined gold this year, a figure that would make it the world’s largest producer and far exceed estimates from independent industry observers.
Natural Resources Minister Alexander Kozlov told state-run news agency Tass this week that Russia would mine between 480 and 500 tonnes of gold in 2025 and that output last year may also have been about 480 tonnes.
The figures surprised industry analysts and executives because Russia has not released official gold production data since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The estimate is roughly 50% higher than the World Gold Council’s (WGC) assessment of Russia’s 2024 mine output and comes despite the absence of major new mines entering production in recent years.
The WGC estimated Russia mined about 330 tonnes of gold in 2024, second only to China’s 380 tonnes. Independent consultancy Metals Focus estimated Russian mine production at 345 tonnes last year, while Russian magazine Gold and Technologies estimated total output at about 360 tonnes.
Finance Ministry data show Russia’s total gold production exceeded mine supply by roughly 50 to 60 tonnes annually in the three years through 2021. Analysts have noted, however, that elevated gold prices and Russia’s economic pressures could have increased scrap supply.
Global stakes
The production claim follows reports that Russia has been reducing its gold reserves, highlighting the metal’s growing importance to the country’s finances. Bloomberg reported this week that the Bank of Russia may have raised more than $4 billion by selling about 28 tonnes of gold from its reserves this year after beginning to reduce holdings in 2024 to help cover budget deficits linked to the war in Ukraine. That would include 6 tonnes Russia sold as recently as April, according to the WGC.
Russia’s estimate highlights the growing opacity surrounding one of the world’s largest gold-producing jurisdictions since Western sanctions disrupted data transparency. No major new Russian gold mines are known to have entered production in recent years at a scale that would explain an increase of roughly 150 tonnes per year, making Kozlov’s estimate difficult to reconcile with industry forecasts. If accurate, the figure would put Russia ahead of China as the world’s top gold miner; if not, it underscores how difficult Russian gold data have become to verify since the war began.