Meteorologists warned on Monday that Hong Kong must have both mindset and infrastructure prepared against the combined effects of the El Nino climate pattern and climate change, a pairing that could bring the city more hot nights, rainstorms, typhoons and lead to a rise in heat-related fatalities.
At a press conference, experts confirmed that El Nino — a natural phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific — has already developed and is gaining strength.
According to research by the World Meteorological Organization, the likelihood of a super El Nino occurring between October and December this year is as high as 81 percent.
Driven by the rapidly intensifying El Nino phenomenon, global temperatures are likely to hit new highs in 2026 and 2027, triggering droughts, floods, and even food crises across various regions of the world, said Shun Chi-ming, former director of the Hong Kong Observatory.
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Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, torrential rain, typhoons, and storm surges, could be more frequent in Hong Kong, he warned, adding that higher temperatures could cause more deaths.
Research conducted by the University of Hong Kong concluded hot weather causes about 300 deaths in the city yearly, which could exceed the number of fatalities caused by all other natural disasters combined, said Shun. Studies from other regions shown that heat-related deaths are severely underreported, he added.
“Society should take early precautionary measures — paying particular attention to the risks posed by heatwaves and extreme weather — while looking after vulnerable groups and helping them cope with the severe challenges of climate change,” he noted.
Climate risks are no longer merely isolated weather events, but a systemic test for urban infrastructure, public health, and social equity, said Amos Tai Pui-kuen, deputy chair overseeing education of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
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In a world that is continuously warming due to human activity, the impact of El Nino tends to be further amplified, Tai said.
He said previous research has found that strong El Nino events can exacerbate drought and wildfire risks in tropical forest regions, thereby worsening air quality and affecting ecosystems in a wider geographical area. Moreover, the carbon released by wildfires from forest stocks can create a vicious cycle, intensifying climate change, Tai added.
In the long term, it is essential to enhance the public’s understanding of and capacity to respond to climate risks, and to advance efforts in an early stage to mitigate the impact of climate change and to strengthen climate resilience, he stressed.
Echoing Tai and Shun, Jeffrey Hung, chief policy research officer of Friends of the Earth — an environmental protection body — said there are several climate risks Hong Kong should prepare for this year. He noted that outdoor workers and grassroots families bear a disproportionately heavy burden from Hong Kong’s climate risks due to limited resources, and he reminded workers to take regular breaks and drink water in hot weather.
Hung said society must pay attention to the elderly living alone and provide timely assistance, and neighbors can set up a simple mutual-aid contact network.
Contact the writer at atlasshao@chinadailyhk.com