Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs blocked access to Polymarket on May 25, describing the crypto-based prediction platform as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.” The ministry said it was also tracing affiliated social media accounts for potential restrictions across other digital channels, and would move against “similar services” facilitating the same activity.
The immediate trigger was a Polymarket contract, live since May 21, allowing users to bet on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term ends in October 2029. The market drew more than $46,000 in trading volume on contracts tied to three exit dates: May 31, June 30 and December 31, 2026. Traders priced the probability of Prabowo’s early departure at 1%, 2% and 18% respectively. The ministry’s statement did not reference the presidential contract directly but characterised the platform broadly as one that facilitates “betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes.” Alexander Sabar, the ministry’s director general of digital space supervision, said using blockchain or crypto assets as infrastructure does not change that classification.
Gambling is illegal in Indonesia under national law, and Prabowo’s government has treated online betting as a social harm to be suppressed. Since he took office in October 2024, Komdigi has blocked approximately 3.4 million websites deemed to facilitate gambling – a campaign that Polymarket has now been swept into.
Indonesia’s move is the latest in a quick succession of enforcement actions against prediction markets. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology issued a formal blocking order against Polymarket on May 21, classifying the platform as prohibited “online money gaming” under India’s gaming legislation. A separate order targeting Kalshi, the US-regulated prediction exchange, followed. Both platforms had defied an earlier government advisory, which Indian officials said accelerated the enforcement timeline.
Brazil moved earlier. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the blocking of 27 prediction market platforms – including Polymarket and Kalshi – on April 24, with telecoms regulator Anatel executing the blocks the same day. Brazil’s National Monetary Council had also issued a rule confining derivatives to financial benchmarks such as interest rates and exchange rates, explicitly excluding contracts tied to politics, elections, sports and social outcomes.
Polymarket is now blocked in more than 33 jurisdictions. Regulators across all three countries reached for the same legal mechanism: classifying prediction markets as gambling or unregulated betting rather than engaging with any distinction between forecasting tools and wagering products. That framing makes DNS-level blocking the path of least resistance, even if it does little to stop determined users from accessing the platforms via VPN.