Nifty 50 climbed 0.29% to settle at 25,416.65, while the S&P BSE Sensex added 222 points to finish at 82,566. This late-session recovery was largely catalyzed by the tabling of the Economic Survey 2025–26, which bolstered optimism ahead of this weekend’s Union Budget.
Despite the headline gains, the overall market breadth remained cautious. The advance-decline ratio leaned toward sellers, with approximately 1,828 stocks advancing against 2,791 decliners. On the sectoral front, Nifty Metals and Engineering Services led the charge, with Tata Steel and L&T emerging as top performers.
On the other hand, auto and IT stocks faced selling pressure, particularly Maruti Suzuki, following its Q3 earnings miss.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: NLC India Ltd (current price: ₹264)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong PSU balance sheet and government support, key role in India’s power generation and mining, ongoing diversification into renewables, including solar and wind, long-term structural demand for energy in India, stable cash flows supported by contracted capacity, potential for gradual debt reduction and margin improvement, and strategic fuel security backed by lignite mining.
- Key metrics: P/E: 12.76, 52-week high: ₹292.20, volume: ₹86.29 crore
- Technical analysis: 200-DMA bounce
- Risk factors: Exposure to commodity and fuel price volatility, execution risks in renewable and expansion projects, regulatory and environmental compliance pressures, earnings sensitivity to plant performance and tariff structures, infrastructure and capex funding constraints, PSU bureaucracy leading to slower decision-making cycles, and rising competition across power generation and green energy segments.
- Buy: ₹262–266
- Target price: ₹299 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹248
Buy: V-Guard Industries Ltd (current price: ₹334)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong brand equity in electrical and home products, a diversified product portfolio spanning stabilizers, pumps, fans, UPS, and kitchen appliances, a wide distribution network across India, growing penetration in rural and semi-urban markets, consistent profitability and healthy cash generation, benefits from rising infrastructure and housing demand, and an increasing focus on premiumization and new product categories.
- Key metrics: P/E:47.69, 52-week high: ₹409.75, volume: ₹30.70 crore
- Technical analysis: 50-DMA retake
- Risk factors: Commodity input cost volatility across copper, steel, and plastics, intense competition from both organized and unorganized players, margin pressure in low-priced mass-market categories, execution risks associated with new product launches, dependence on monsoon trends and rural demand cycles, foreign exchange impact from imported components, and regulatory as well as quality standard compliance risks.
- Buy at: ₹331-337
- Target price: ₹285 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹312
Nifty 50 recap
On Thursday, Indian equities ended the session on a mildly positive note, supported by selective buying in Banks, Metals, and Oil and Gas, even as broader market breadth remained weak. Nifty 50 closed at 25,418.9, up 0.3% or 76 points, after recovering steadily from the intraday low of 25,159.
The index traded within a narrow range and held above its previous close of 25,342, indicating buying interest near lower levels. Additionally, Sensex settled modestly higher, tracking similar intraday strength in heavyweight stocks. On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal outperformed with a sharp 3% gain, aided by firm global cues, while Private Banks and Financial Services added around 0.5–1%, lending stability to the benchmarks.
Oil & gas and realty also ended in the green. In contrast, defensives and consumption-linked sectors such as FMCG, IT, pharma, auto, and healthcare saw profit-taking, reflecting a cautious stance ahead of key global developments. Market breadth was negative, with 1,383 stocks advancing against 1,822 declines, underscoring continued pressure in the broader market despite index-level gains.
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 ended the session with a constructive rebound after recent corrective pressure, reflecting improving price action on the daily chart. The index formed a strong recovery candle, indicating buying interest emerging at lower levels after a sharp sell-off earlier in the week. Despite this bounce, the broader price structure suggests the index remains in a corrective phase within the medium-term uptrend, with recent candles highlighting heightened volatility and indecision.
Momentum indicators present a mixed but stabilising picture. The RSI is in the low-40s, rebounding from near-oversold territory, indicating waning bearish momentum but not yet a decisive bullish reversal. This suggests near-term consolidation with a positive bias. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram still below the signal line, reflecting ongoing corrective undertones.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, Nifty 50 remains in a Downtrend. From a tactical standpoint, traders should remain selective and prioritize risk management.
The index delivered a constructive close by reclaiming its 200-DMA and staging a decisive bounce from the key support zone around 24,900, reinforcing the near-term stability of the trend. On the downside, 24,900–25,000 is expected to act as an immediate cushion, while any deeper corrective phase is likely to attract incremental buying interest closer to 24,600.
On the upside, the index is expected to remain range-bound amid elevated volatility, with near-term price action broadly confined within 24,900–25,600. Market participants are likely to adopt a cautious, data-dependent approach as they await clearer directional cues from macroeconomic developments and global market trends.
How Nifty Bank Performed
Nifty Bank opened on a positive note at 59,416.25 and witnessed mild intraday volatility in the initial phase of trade. After dipping to an intraday low of 59,339.00, the index attracted buying interest from lower levels and staged a steady recovery.
It later moved higher to reach an intraday high of 60,060.70 before settling near the upper end of the day’s range. The index finally closed at 59,957.85, of 359.05 points or 0.60%, reflecting improving sentiment across banking stocks. The ability to rebound from intraday lows and close firmly above key short-term moving averages highlights active institutional support and suggests that dips are being used as buying opportunities rather than triggering aggressive selling.
The momentum indicators are showing constructive signals. The RSI (14) is currently placed around 56, trending upward and holding comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating strengthening bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.
The MACD is attempting a positive crossover, with the histogram gradually improving, suggesting a potential pickup in upside momentum in the near term. Price action remains above the 21-day and 50-DMA, reinforcing the short-term positive bias. Momentum indicators together suggest consolidation with a positive bias rather than trend exhaustion at current levels.
Immediate support for the index is placed in 58,000–57,900, aligning closely with the 100-DMA, making it a crucial demand area. On the upside, near-term resistance is seen around 60,100–60,200. A decisive breakout above this zone could trigger further upside toward 60,800–61,200 in the coming sessions. Sustained trading above the 21-DMA would keep the short-term trend constructive, while a breach of key support may result in range-bound consolidation rather than a meaningful trend reversal.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O’Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.