GERMANY – 2025/10/03: In this photo illustration, the RTX Corporation logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
RTX (NYSE: RTX) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Traditionally, RTX stock has exhibited a pattern of a negative one-day return in the aftermath of its earnings announcements. Throughout the last five years, the stock has decreased on 55% of the days immediately succeeding an earnings release. These negative returns have an average value of -1.6%, with a maximum one-day drop recorded at -10.2%.
For traders focused on events, recognizing these historical trends can serve as a significant advantage, although the immediate stock response is greatly influenced by how the actual outcomes line up with market expectations and consensus.
There are two main strategies to capitalize on this information:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Assess the historical probabilities and establish a position before the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the relationship between the immediate one-day return and the stock’s medium-term returns following the earnings release, and position yourself accordingly.
The market consensus predicts RTX will reveal earnings of $1.41 per share with sales totaling $21.32 billion. This stands in contrast to the results from the same quarter last year, which reported earnings of $1.45 per share on sales of $20.09 billion.
Financially, the company holds a current market capitalization of $211 billion. In the past twelve months, RTX generated $84 billion in revenue, reporting $8.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $6.1 billion.
However, if you are looking for potential upside with reduced volatility compared to holding individual stocks, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has significantly outperformed its benchmark—a composite of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indices—and has generated returns exceeding 105% since its inception. What is the reason for this? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks delivered superior returns with lower risk compared to the benchmark index; it is a smoother ride, as demonstrated in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
View the earnings reaction history of all stocks
RTX’s Historical Probability Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings data points collected over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns have been observed around 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 42% when looking at data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 9 positive returns = 2.6%, and the median of the 11 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for recorded 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
RTX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Trefis
Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (although not effective if the correlation is low) involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identifying a pair that demonstrates the highest correlation, and executing the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves as “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Trefis
Investing in a single stock without thorough analysis can be perilous. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stock benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to deliver robust returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks offered an agile way to capitalize on positive market conditions while mitigating losses when markets decline, as outlined in RV Portfolio performance metrics.