Demand for commercial property in Scotland rose in the last quarter, driven by an uptick in the office subsector, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) commercial property monitor.
But there are signs of some caution amidst rising uncertainty and fiscal tension.
Overall occupier demand increased through the third quarter of the year, with a net balance of 10 per cent of Scottish respondents reporting an increase, up from the three per cent reported in the survey previous. Looking at the subsectors, in Q3, a net balance of 21 per cent of respondents reported a rise in demand for office space which is up from the five per cent seen in Q2 and the second highest balance seen across other UK regions behind London. A net balance of 14 per cent of Scottish respondents reported an uptick in demand for industrial space, whilst a net balance of -3 per cent of surveyors reported a fall in demand for retail space.
However, investor demand appears to have taken a dip. A net balance of -10 per cent of surveyors in Scotland report that investment enquiries at all-sector level declined for the second consecutive quarter. Both office and retail space saw falls in demand from investors (net balances of -15 per cent and-18 per cent respectively), and whilst industrial space saw rise in investor demand, it was only marginally so (a net balance of four per cent).
Despite this, capital values are expected to rise over the next three months, albeit at a slower pace than seen previously. A net balance of 20 per cent of respondents anticipate an increase at all sector level, down from the 31 per cent seen in the survey previous. Capital values for both office and industrial space are expected to rise through the final quarter of the year (net balance of 29 per cent and 34 per cent respectively), whereas capital values for retail space are expected to decline (a net balance of -4 per cent). Surveyors remain optimistic on the 12-month outlook for capital values too, with a net balance of 30 per cent anticipating capital values to rise at all-sector level.
Looking at rental expectations, a net balance of 22 per cent of surveyors in Scotland expect rents to rise at all-sector level through the final quarter of the year, down from the 28 per cent seen in Q2, and 32 per cent seen in Q1. Looking at the subsectors, a net balance of 45 per cent expects rents to rise for industrial space and a net balance of 21 per cent expects rents for office space to increase whilst rents for retail space are expected to fall flat.
Survey respondent Stuart Hall of Kingsmead Developments in Glasgow said that market confidence has been impacted by world events and economic uncertainty at a UK level.
RICS head of market research & analysis, Tarrant Parsons, said: “The latest UK Commercial Property Monitor illustrates reduced market activity. Both occupier and investor demand experienced slight dips this quarter. A cocktail of elevated bond yields, above- target inflation, and fiscal policy uncertainty is creating caution across investors.
“Landlords remain under pressure to offer increasingly generous incentives as vacancy rates continue to move higher. Meanwhile, the appetite for secondary assets continues to wane. Although prime and alternative sectors still offer pockets of resilience, the near-term outlook has become more subdued amid an increasingly challenging near-term macro environment.”