Union Budget 2026: Silver and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plunged up to 20 per cent in Sunday’s trade, thanks to a sharp correction in gold and silver futures on MCX, ahead of Budget 2026. In view of the volatility in underlying gold and silver prices, NSE and BSE had prescribed lower price band of 20 per cent today.
“In view of the volatility in underlying Gold & Silver prices, Reference Price for Gold & Silver ETFs traded on the Exchange shall be based on the T-1 NAV as published by the respective Mutual Funds / Asset management Companies. Accordingly, the prescribed lower price band of 20% shall be applicable to the said T-1 NAV price for trading purposes. This change in methodology is applicable for today’s trading session,” NSE said.
Gold and silver prices have been falling as the US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next US Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump, who is known for his hawkish stance on inflation control and emphasis on Fed independence.
Akshat Garg, Head Research & product of Choice Wealth said Sunday’s sharp fall in gold and silver ETFs looks scary on the screen, but it is more of a sentiment shock than a story-breaker.
“Precious metals had run up sharply over the last year, and what we are seeing now is a mix of profit-booking, global volatility and reaction to macro cues. ETFs tend to exaggerate moves on such days, both up and down. For investors, this is not a moment for panic. Gold and silver are portfolio hedges, not trading bets. If your allocation is sensible, staying put makes sense. If anything, staggered buying during corrections works better than chasing rallies. Volatility hurts emotions, not long-term plans,” he said.
There has been rapid macro re-pricing, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money. The dollar strengthened, real yields rose, and leveraged positions in gold and silver viewed as overextended debasement hedges unwound swiftly.
At 9.49 am, Aditya Birla Sun Life Silver ETF was down 20 per cent at Rs 263.22 against its indicative NAV (i-Nav) of Rs 72.48. Similarly, Nippon-India-Silver-ETF plunged 20 per cent to Rs 252.49, falling below its i-NAV of 305.93. Zerodha Silver ETF fell 19.98 per cent to Rs 26.80. NAVs of HDFC Silver ETF and SBI Silver ETF also fell 20 per cent each.
Similarly, gold ETFs such as Invesco India Gold Exchange Traded Fund, HDFC Gold Exchange Traded Fund,
ICICI Prudential Gold ETF and NIPPON INDIA ETF GOLD BEES, among others, fell up to 12 per cent.
In the case of MCX Silver, analysts said momentum indicators have flipped from extreme overbought to oversold within a very short span on technical charts, highlighting structural instability rather than healthy correction. “The Rs 2,60,000–2,55,000 zone is now a critical demand area; failure to hold may open deeper corrective risk. Any pullback toward Rs 3,00,000–3,10,000 is expected to attract selling pressure. The trend remains bearish-biased in the short term, with volatility expected to stay elevated,” Ponmudi said.
For gold, while the broader long-term trend was bullish, the recent move clearly reflects distribution at higher levels, he said.
Over the long term, analysts said gold adds stability, not growth, offering low-to-mid returns. Silver, they said, is cyclical, not defensive, showing higher volatility and positive equity correlation, making it a tactical risk-on asset rather than a hedge.
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