Platinum will remain in deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, though the shortage will drop by over 75 per cent, with the demand declining by 8 per cent, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has said.
Releasing Platinum Quarterly for the fourth quarter of 2025, WPIC said the platinum market deficit topped one million ounces (oz) in 2025. The deficit was higher than the 0.69 million oz estimated at the end of the third quarter.
4-year low demand
For this year, the outlook reflected some of the market’s initial reaction to prices more than doubling that of 2025 rates. “Total demand is expected to reach a four-year low, but even with supply reaching a five-year high, the market is still expected to remain in a deficit of 0.24 million oz (equivalent to 3 per cent of total demand),” said the WPIC.
The white precious metal, which is used in jewellery, automotive catalyst, in the chemical industry and in medical devices including cancer-treating drugs, is currently ruling at $2,154 an ounce. Prices are up over 120 per cent on year and about 5 per cent year-to-date.
Platinum supply is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2026 to 7.37 million oz. The supply growth will entirely be underpinned by recycling, which is more responsive to prices.
High price impact
Platinum demand is forecast to decline by 8 per cent to 7,619 koz this year. “Neither the automotive nor the industrial segment is expected to be materially impacted by higher prices. Automotive demand is expected to decrease by 3 per cent on lower catalysed vehicle production (-0.9 million units) and industrial demand recovers somewhat, a 11 per cent increase from its low base in 2025,” said the WPIC.
“(It)…is forecast to increase by 10 per cent year-on-year in 2026. Mining is somewhat price inelastic and is expected to be stable, with some growth in Southern Africa being offset by lower North American and Russian supplies,” the council said.
Higher prices are forecast to impact jewellery demand (-12 per cent), with China (-37 per cent) recording the steepest regional decline.
“Investment demand is forecast to be characterised by two factors. Platinum bar and coin demand (including China large bars over 500 grams) is expected to reach a record of 0.74 million ounces (35 per cent). “However, the large increase in 2025 stocks held by exchanges of 0.384 million is expected to unwind by 0.10 million oz, reducing platinum investment demand (-46 per cent),” it said.
Exchange-traded funds demand is expected to remain robust, with any price-linked profit taking offset by new investment purchases.
4-year low mine supply
In 2025, supply slipped by one per cent, with a four-year drop in mining supplies. Recycling, however, increased by 10 per cent, partially offsetting the shortage in mine supplies.
“Many of the developments in Q4 2025, that drove the 0.20 million oz quarterly deficit and boosted the full-year deficit highlight the fundamental drivers,” the WPIC said.
In 2025, mine supplies dropped in South Africa by 4 per cent, while in Zimbabwe and North America, they slid by 2 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
“Mine supply was principally affected by an inability of South African producers to continue drawing down excess work-in-process inventories, while in the US, output was reduced by the rationalisation of high-cost production,” said the council.
Barring 2020, which was disrupted by Covid, the 2025 mine supply was its lowest since 2014 and reflects an ongoing reduction in expenditure to grow mine supply. Jewellery recycling increased by 19 per cent, and that of automotive catalyst and industrial by 7 per cent each.
China’s jewelly sell-backs
“Recycling supply growth was due to jewellery sell-backs by Chinese wholesalers liquidating inventory built up during the low price in the second quarter of 2025,” said the WPIC.
Last year, automotive catalyst and industrial demand decreased by 2 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, but jewellery demand increased by 9 per cent.
However, investment demand surged by 65 per cent to 1.15 million oz from 0.70 million oz in 2024. Investment demand increased as investors sought exposure to platinum for its underlying fundamentals and precious metals attributes, the council said.
Overall, ground stocks of the metal slipped by 27 per cent to 2.85 million oz from 3.93 million oz in 2024.
Published on March 5, 2026