Data from the federal government indicates foreign direct investment (FDI) in the violence-wracked state of Sinaloa has shrunk considerably this year, but state officials insist business confidence remains high.
Amid a civil war between factions of the Sinaloa drug cartel that surpassed 13 months last week, investor confidence is wavering, according to the news magazine Expansión.
Economy Ministry data indicates FDI in Sinaloa plummeted 87% during the first six months of 2025, shrinking from US $262.8 million in the same period last year to US $34.3 million this year.
The United States, traditionally the biggest foreign investor in the state, contributed US $17.6 million in January-June 2025, down from US $129 million during the same period last year.
U.S. business leaders say insecurity remains one of the biggest obstacles to investing in Mexico, according to Investment Climate Statements published by the U.S. State Department.
State officials offer a different story.
Governor Rubén Rocha’s administration insists confidence in the state’s ability to meet financial commitments and maintain responsible management of its public debt is strong.
His claim earned support on Monday when Moody’s boosted Sinaloa’s credit rating from “negative” to “stable.”
David Moreno, the state’s undersecretary of Planning, Investment and Financing, said the upgrade reflects the financial discipline demonstrated by the Rocha administration, which has strengthened operating income and controlled public spending.
“Our outlook for the next six to 18 months is stable, according to the rating agencies,” he said. “This establishes Sinaloa as a reliable state for national and international lending agencies.”
Sinaloa’s Economy Ministry says the state has attracted US $1.7 billion in foreign investment since Rocha took office in November 2021, 85% of the governor’s goal of US $2 billion for his entire term.
“Governor Rocha has set a new goal of US $3 billion before his term ends in 2027,” said Economy Minister Ricardo Velarde, identifying the Economic Development Hub project and burgeoning investments in hotels across the state as evidence of Sinaloa’s stability.
Last month, tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Culiacán, demanding an end to the violence. Many called for Rocha’s resignation. Two months earlier, a poll conducted by the national statistics agency INEGI revealed that Culiacán residents considered their city to be the least safe in all of Mexico.
With reports from Expansión, El Sol de Sinaloa and El Financiero