BP p.l.c. (LON:BP) said in its third-quarter 2025 trading statement that it anticipates higher upstream production and stronger refining margins compared with the prior quarter, while warning of weak oil trading results and modest asset impairments.
BP’s reported upstream production for Q3 2025 is expected to rise from Q2, driven by stronger gas output from its U.S. bpx energy unit and improved performance in gas and low-carbon energy operations. Refining margins have strengthened by an estimated $0.3–$0.4 billion, while the company expects a weak oil trading outcome and minor exploration write-offs.
The London-based supermajor said reported upstream production should increase sequentially, with oil and gas volumes both contributing to the rise. In its Gas & Low Carbon Energy division, results were affected by slightly lower realized gas prices and an average performance from marketing and trading.
Within Oil Production & Operations, realized prices remained broadly flat due to price lags in the Gulf of Mexico and the UAE. Exploration write-offs are forecast to be about $100 million higher than in Q2.
BP’s Customers & Products segment benefited from seasonally stronger fuel sales and higher refining margins but faced headwinds from unplanned downtime at the Whiting refinery in the U.S., caused by severe weather, and from environmental compliance costs.
Post-tax adjusting items related to asset impairments are projected between $200 million and $500 million, spread across business units. These will be excluded from the underlying replacement cost (RC) profit.
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The company said net debt is expected to remain broadly flat at around $26 billion, despite redeeming $1.2 billion in hybrid bonds in September and paying roughly $1 billion more in income taxes during the quarter. Working capital releases partially offset these outflows.
Benchmark Brent crude averaged $69.13 per barrel in Q3, up slightly from $67.88 in Q2, while U.S. Henry Hub gas prices eased to $3.07 per mmBtu. BP’s refining indicator margin averaged $15.8 per barrel, up sharply from $11.9 per barrel in the previous quarter.
The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance of around $14.5 billion in capital expenditure and a 40% underlying effective tax rate. Divestment proceeds of $3–$4 billion remain weighted toward the final quarter.
BP will publish its full third-quarter results on November 4, 2025, providing final figures after completing its financial reporting process.