On 5 May 2026, Turkey quietly unveiled its new “Yildirimhan” (“Lightning”) intercontinental ballistic missile at the SAHA 2026 Defence and Aerospace Exhibition in Istanbul. Turkish officials said the new missile could deliver a 3,000-kilogram warhead at Mach 25. If Turkish claims are accurate—and Turkey said it would test fire the missile later this year—the entirety of Europe, Africa, West Asia, and India would fall within range of Turkey’s missiles.
If Turkish claims are accurate—and Turkey said it would test fire the missile later this year—the entirety of Europe, Africa, West Asia, and India would fall within range of Turkey’s missiles.
The question Indian officials should ask is why Turkey needs such a range. Turkey’s rivals—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Armenia, and Iran—are all within of Turkey’s existing Tayfun missiles.
Countries do not develop ICBMs to strike along their own borders. Within the Yildirimhan’s range the only plausible new target is India. It is unlikely, for example, that Turkey would need to strike at Iceland or Indonesia. Nor as a NATO member, would Turkey need to develop its own long-range missiles to counter Russia. This leaves India as Turkey’s likely target.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is an unabashed Islamist. When elected mayor of Istanbul, he described himself as the “Imam of Istanbul” and a “servant of the Shari’a.” He ultimately ran afoul of Turkey’s then-secular authorities in 1997 by inciting sectarian violence with a religious poem at rally. “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers,” he declared.
After a brief stint in prison, he made a comeback. He reinvented himself as a conservative technocrat who would put economy first. His commitment to both the constitution and democracy were always tenuous. Famously, he likened democracy to a streetcar. “You ride it as far as you need and then step off,” he explained.
In November 2002, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 32% of the vote but, through a fluke of the election system, won a supermajority enabling the party both to reverse Erdoğan’s ban from elective office and to change the constitution. While U.S. and European officials downplayed his comeback, arguing the AKP was no different than a European Christian Democratic party, this comparison was just wishful thinking.
Erdoğan’s Islamist ambition is not limited to West Asia. He has increasingly made the Kashmiri separatist cause his own.
Slowly at first, Erdoğan began unravelling democratic checks-and-balances. As he grew more secure, he dispensed with any pretence of any priority beyond jihad. He described the Turkish Army as the “Army of Muhammad” and manoeuvred to place Turks in charge of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Behind-the-scenes, Turkey backed and profited from the Islamic State and then supported an Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria.
Far from bringing peace, Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham regime has systematically targeted religious minorities like the Alawis and Druze. They harboured special cruelty toward Kurds, executing and mutilating women who, while Muslim, offended extremist sensitivities with their empowerment.
Today, as Iran’s support for Hezbollah falters, Turkey has taken up the slack. Turkey has also become the leadership and coordination base for Hamas, as it continues to plot terrorism against Israel.
Erdoğan’s Islamist ambition is not limited to West Asia. He has increasingly made the Kashmiri separatist cause his own. Just as he will not acknowledge Palestinians commit terrorism because he finds their cause just, so too he does not believe Kashmiris can do wrong. Kashmiri terror, he believes, is justified. Targeting any government official regardless of their religion is permissible if they answer to a non-Muslim government that holds authority over Muslims. Killing non-Muslims is permissible. Indeed, Erdoğan hinted at his thought process when, in 2009, he welcomed Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir despite International Criminal Court charges of genocide. By definition, “a Muslim could not commit genocide,” Erdoğan insisted.
In 2020, Erdoğan insisted “Kashmir is as close to us as Turkey” and he later described Kashmir as a “burning issue.”
In 2020, Erdoğan insisted “Kashmir is as close to us as Turkey” and he later described Kashmir as a “burning issue.” Turkey has increasingly offered scholarships to Kashmiri students to groom them into Turkish-style Islamism and perhaps even give them military training. Just as Erdoğan promotes neo-Ottomanism, so too does he also believe in neo-Mughalism, the idea that Muslims should rule India.
While the Ministry of External Affairs notes moderation in Turkey’s rhetoric toward Kashmir over the past few years at the United Nations, sometimes quiet can reflect the calm before the storm. Ideologues shift tactics, but their core beliefs only harden with time. Turkey would likely not attack India directly at first, but it could use its missiles to protect Pakistan and deter any Indian retaliation against Kashmir-inspired terrorists. Erdoğan’s Islamism, his animosity toward any Hindu polity, his Islamist supremacy, and his efforts to develop missiles that can target India suggest the storm is now brewing.
Published originally on May 17, 2026.